Best NFL Week 5 Player Props for the Weekend Matchups

profile image of scottkacsmar
devonta-smith-philadelphia-eagles-kendall-fuller-washington-commanders-aspect-ratio-16-9
Wide receiver DeVonta Smith #6 of the Philadelphia Eagles catches a touchdown over cornerback Kendall Fuller #29 of the Washington Commanders. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP.

Another interesting schedule in the NFL for this Week 5 slate should get your creativity flowing for NFL player prop picks. These props can always be found in many of the top-rated sportsbooks, so you can use them in a parlay or play your favorites as singles.

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration


Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field

Jaguars’ Prop Bet: James Robinson

  • Over 62.5 Rushing Yards

We were a week early on James Robinson last week in rainy Philadelphia where the Jaguars trailed for the final three quarters. Robinson did not get his usual number of snaps and carries for that reason.

But the Houston defense, with its league-high 36 missed tackles, has been incredible for opposing running backs this season.

  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) in Week 1: 161 rushing yards, TD
  • Javonte Williams (Broncos) in Week 2: 75 rushing yards
  • Khalil Herbert (Bears) in Week 3:157 rushing yards, 2 TD
  • Austin Ekeler (Chargers) in Week 4: 60 rushing yards, 3 TD (2 rushing)

Robinson had at least 64 rushing yards and a touchdown in each of his first three games this season. In two home games against the Texans, he has rushed for 99 and 75 yards (plus a touchdown in each game).

This is a great matchup for him as the offense will look to get more going on the ground and play with a lead against the only winless team in the NFL. Robinson also has the big-play ability with touchdown runs of 50 and 37 yards this year.

NFL Prop Pick: James Robinson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-122) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
James Robinson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
Visit Site

San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium

Panthers’ Prop Bet: Baker Mayfield

  • Under 18.5 Completions

San Francisco’s defense was very impressive late in the 2021 season, and it has carried this success over under coordinator DeMeco Ryans into 2022. The 49ers have yet to allow more than 200 net passing yards, and they have not allowed a passing touchdown since Justin Fields (of all people) had two in Week 1.

This is the worst nightmare for Baker Mayfield, who is dead last in the NFL in QBR (15.3). Unless the 49ers are going to blow games to the two-lowest rated quarterbacks in 2022, this should be a dominant showing by the top defense against the worst offense at moving the ball right now. The Panthers are 32nd in yards and first downs.

Mayfield completed a season-high 22 passes against Arizona last week, but he did not have more than 16 completions in the first three games. The Saints held him to 12 completions in Week 3. This offense is just not built for succeeding through the air, and the 49ers also shut down the run as well as anyone.

This should be an ugly game for the offense, and busted plays have been one of the best ways to beat the 49ers’ defense this year. Stringing together multiple completions on various drives is not Baker’s strength. He should finish under 18.5 completions here.

NFL Prop Pick: Baker Mayfield Under 18.5 Completions (-115) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Baker Mayfield Under 18.5 Completions (-115)
Visit Site

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium

Steelers’ Prop Bet: George Pickens

  • Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

This could be the last time this season you see a number under 40 receiving yards for rookie George Pickens in Pittsburgh. All it took was him making the catch of the year against Cleveland for everyone in Pittsburgh from head coach Mike Tomlin to offensive coordinator Matt Canada to both quarterbacks to realize he needs the ball as much as possible.

Against the Jets, Pickens had 102 yards on 6 catches and 8 targets. He had 65 yards in the first three games combined. Not only did Mitch Trubisky find him early, but rookie Kenny Pickett came off the bench and continued to show his preseason connection with Pickens could be done in real games too.

This is a tough matchup in Buffalo with the Steelers a 14-point underdog for the first time since 1970, but this offense might surprise some people this week. If Pickett can stay aggressive as a starter the way he did as a backup off the bench, then he should have no problem getting Pickens to 40 yards on Sunday.

NFL Prop Pick: George Pickens Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at Bovada

Bovada logo
George Pickens Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Visit Site

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium

Eagles’ Prop Bet: DeVonta Smith

  • Over 53.5 Receiving Yards

Before we assume the Eagles are going to play the matchups and some weeks will be a DeVonta Smith week and other weeks will be an A.J. Brown week, we should consider the wet conditions made passing difficult last week against Jacksonville. Smith only had 17 yards in that game, similar to his no-catch opener in Detroit this year. But let’s not forget he had 80 and 169 yards in the two games in between.

This feels like a matchup, played indoors in a stadium where Jalen Hurts passed for 334 yards as a rookie, and where Smith and Brown could both go off. But just focusing on Smith, over 53.5 yards is very enticing with his ability to catch deep balls and Arizona’s porous pass defense.

The Eagles are the only offense that has yet to trail or be tied in the fourth quarter, and 85 of their 115 points have been scored in the second quarter. So, you do get some concerns about their willingness to keep airing it out for 60 minutes, but Hurts has had big numbers against Minnesota and Washington without doing much in the fourth quarter, and those were Smith’s big days in 2022. Count on this to be another one and take this over.

NFL Prop Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at Bovada

Bovada logo
DeVonta Smith Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Visit Site

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium

Buccaneers’ Prop Bet: Tom Brady

  • Parlay: 300+ Passing Yards, 3+ Passing TDs, and Tampa Bay to Win

We can talk about Tom Brady without talking about the off-field gossip surrounding him this week. But if that doesn’t motivate him, then a game against an Atlanta team he is 10-0 against and a battle for first place in the division should be plenty of motivation.

Plus, did Brady really end retirement to lose three games in a row for the first time since 2002? This would also be a fourth-straight home loss going back to the playoffs, which would be another career first for Brady.

The Falcons come in as a 10-point underdog. For as bad as Tampa Bay’s defense was on Sunday night, it won’t be seeing the creativity of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes this week. It will be getting Marcus Mariota, who completed 7 passes against the Browns last week, and it won’t be seeing running back Cordarrelle Patterson, who had surgery on Monday.

As for Brady, since joining Tampa Bay in 2020, he has gone off on the Falcons every time:

  • 2020 Week 15: 31-27 win, 390 yards, 2 TD passes
  • 2020 Week 17: 44-27 win, 399 yards, 4 TD passes
  • 2021 Week 2: 48-25 win, 276 yards, 5 TD passes
  • 2021 Week 13: 30-17 win, 368 yards, 4 TD passes

With his receivers back on Sunday night, Brady had his best game of the season with 385 yards and 3 touchdown passes. He can hit those numbers again but in a winning effort this time.

Take a prepared parlay pick through the prop builder at Bovada that has Brady throwing for at least 300 yards and three scores in a Tampa Bay win. You don’t even need them to cover to hit the nice odds (+328) for your NFL picks this Sunday.

NFL Prop Pick: Tom Brady to have 300+ Passing Yards, 3+ Passing TDs, and Buccaneers to Win (+328) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Tom Brady to have 300+ Passing Yards, 3+ Passing TDs, and Buccaneers to Win (+328)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.