Best NFL Week 5 Monday Night Player Props for Raiders vs. Chiefs

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Isiah Pacheco #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

The Las Vegas Raiders finally won their first game of the 2022 NFL season, and their reward is a trip to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs (3-1), who looked incredible on Sunday night against Tampa Bay.

The Chiefs are a 7-point favorite in a game with a total of 51 points at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. Can the Raiders catch the Chiefs looking ahead to Sunday’s showdown with Buffalo, or will Kansas City just roll its rivals again? The Chiefs outscored the Raiders 89-23 in two meetings last season.

Here are some player prop picks for this AFC West matchup.

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, October 10, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Quarterback Props: Raiders’ Derek Carr

  • Over 0.5 Interceptions
  • Under 275.5 Yards

The Chiefs have been a nightmare of an opponent for Derek Carr in his career. He is 3-13 against the Chiefs, including a 1-7 record in Arrowhead. In all seven road losses, Carr never led the Raiders to more than 17 points, never threw for more than 263 yards, and never threw more than one touchdown pass.

There was that shocking 2020 upset in Arrowhead where Carr had the game of his career at throwing deep and converting third-and-long situations in the Raiders’ 40-32 upset win. But the Raiders have been blown out in most of the other recent meetings.

Carr is not having a strong start to 2022 under new coach Josh McDaniels as he tries to figure out how to utilize Davante Adams at receiver. Carr only threw for 188 yards and no touchdowns against Denver as the Raiders rode Josh Jacobs and the ground game to their first win. That is just not going to happen in Kansas City, but Carr is still a bad choice to rely on against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.

Carr has passed for more than 275 yards in just four of 16 career meetings with the Chiefs. He has also been intercepted in Arrowhead five years in a row, including three games with multiple picks.

This is why we like Carr to throw an interception and to throw for under 275.5 yards this week. There is more value in betting on Carr to be poor than there is in Patrick Mahomes to be great in this game. In fact, Mahomes has passed for under 275.5 yards in nine of his last 11 regular-season games, including 258 yards in his last home start against the Raiders.

NFL Pick: Derek Carr Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

NFL Pick: Derek Carr Under 275.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Derek Carr Under 275.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Running Back Prop: Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

If you want a safe pick in this game at running back, take Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score another touchdown for the Chiefs. He leads the team with five scores, and the wide receivers only have two touchdowns so far for the Chiefs as they are more creative now in the red zone without Tyreek Hill available.

Josh Jacobs just scored his first two touchdowns of the season for the Raiders last week and is hard to trust in this matchup. He had 16 carries for 40 yards in the two games combined against Kansas City last year, which can happen when you get blown out and have to pass.

But if you want a real longshot with value in this game, take Kansas City’s Isiah Pacheco to score a touchdown. He did it in the fourth quarter in Week 1 against Arizona, and he just had his second 60-yard rushing game of the season against Tampa Bay. The Chiefs seem to lean on him when they are up big in the fourth, and he has run very hard and impressively for them.

Last season, Derrick Gore broke off a 51-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter to give the Chiefs a 48-9 lead over the Raiders. This shouldn’t be that bad of a blowout, but that is the kind of situation that could come up again if the Chiefs are going to roll through the Raiders with a much more important game to come on Sunday against Buffalo.

NFL Pick: Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+340) at Bovada

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Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+340)
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Wide Receiver Prop: Raiders’ Davante Adams

  • Over 76.5 Yards

This has been an odd start to Davante Adams’ first season with the Raiders. He caught a touchdown in each of the first three games, but his 17 targets in Week 1 made the offense too imbalanced, and Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow were unable to get going.

Then with only 48 yards on seven catches in the next two games, Adams’ role seemed too diminished while Renfrow (concussion) was injured, and Waller was dropping everything. Meanwhile, Mack Hollins came out of nowhere to take the lead in receiving on the team as Carr seemed to think he was the superstar receiver the Raiders traded for.

Things stabilized a bit on Sunday against Denver with Adams having 101 yards, more than half of Carr’s passing output. That probably still isn’t the formula going forward, but we like Adams to play well as this Kansas City defense has been allowing plentiful yardage to leading receivers from Mike Williams (113) to Michael Pittman (72) to Mike Evans (103).

Adams had 42 yards when he played in Kansas City last year with Green Bay, but his quarterback that day was Jordan Love, who was making his first NFL start. In 16 meetings with the Chiefs, Carr has helped a receiver to at least 77 yards on 12 occasions. Carr and Adams should be able to hit the wideout’s over in this matchup.

NFL Pick: Davante Adams Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Davante Adams Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Longest Reception: Chiefs’ Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  • Over 20.5 Yards

Finally, some NFL odds that should be close to a lock in this matchup are for Marquez Valdes-Scantling to have a long catch of at least 21 yards. This was his specialty in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers as he had a 60-yard catch in all four seasons there, including three years in a row with at least a 74-yard catch.

Those types of bombs have been missing in this offense without Tyreek Hill this year, but Mahomes did get a 36-yard completion to Valdes-Scantling against Tampa Bay last week with the receiver showing good extension to get the ball. It led to a season-high 63 yards for the receiver, who is firmly in the third-leading receiver role for this offense behind Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Look for these two to hook up again down the field and make it happen on Monday night for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.