The Los Angeles Rams meet the San Francisco 49ers in the first rematch of the 2021 NFC Championship Game. The 49ers were able to erase a 17-7 fourth-quarter deficit in that one to snap a six-game losing streak to their rivals.
This time, the 49ers are a 1.5-point home favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 points at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. Can Jimmy Garoppolo deliver in prime time after an embarrassing 11-10 loss in Denver last week, or do the defending champs drop the 49ers to 1-3?
We have some player NFL prop picks for you to choose from in this one.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Monday, October 03, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at Levi’s Stadium
Quarterback Props: 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo
- Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-101)
It is a shock to the system that the 49ers built their season around providing something new with Trey Lance at quarterback, a move that could maybe catapult the offense past the Rams and into a Super Bowl this season.
Yet here we are in Week 4 with another 49ers-Rams game that is Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Matthew Stafford. Advantage: Rams. Even though Stafford did not throw a touchdown pass in Arizona last week for the first time since joining the team, he has led a very efficient offense over the last two games, making up for that miserable opener against the Bills.
On the other side, Garoppolo struggled mightily in his first start in Denver. He gave up a safety by running out of bounds in the back of the end zone, and he threw a pick with just over two minutes left. It was a classic Garoppolo pick where sometimes defenders over the middle just seem invisible to him.
But that play, combined with losing his stud left tackle (Trent Williams) to injury, is exactly why we want to focus on a specific prop in this game. A great bet should be on Garoppolo throwing an interception in this game. Sure, he is 6-1 against the Rams in his career, but he has been intercepted in five of those seven games.
His interception rate (2.7%) is higher than the league average for his era. While Stafford makes no-look throws, Garoppolo makes too many no-explanation throws like the aforementioned pick against Denver.
With Aaron Donald and company supplying the pressure, look for at least one pick from Garoppolo to hit an easy over with nice NFL odds attached to it.
Running Back Prop: 49ers’ Jeff Wilson
- Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
The running backs in this matchup leave something to be desired. Cam Akers scored his first touchdown of the season for the Rams, but he also lost a fumble at the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter.
Jeff Wilson is not supposed to be the primary back in San Francisco, but he has the job now that Elijah Mitchell has an MCL injury that will keep him out about two months. So far, Wilson has rushed for 84 yards and 75 yards in his two starts. Those are solid numbers, but Mitchell had several 100-yard games as a rookie last year.
Still, this line is low at 55.5 yards, and it has fair value since you know the 49ers are going to want to run Wilson a good amount to not put the game all on Garoppolo. The scary part is the 49ers lost superb left tackle Trent Williams to a high ankle sprain. His presence will be missed. But even with him last year, Mitchell was held to 20 yards on 11 carries in the NFC Championship Game, a game that Wilson was not active for.
Fading these running backs in your bets may be your wisest decision for this matchup, but if I had to pick one to go over his rushing total, I would take Wilson on the 49ers.
NFL Prop Pick: Jeff Wilson Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-125) at Bovada
Wide Receiver Prop: 49ers’ Brandon Aiyuk
- Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Not betting on Deebo Samuel or Cooper Kupp here might feel sacrilegious, but Samuel is an odd case as the 49ers never seem to balance his receiving and rushing duties to get the best of both worlds. He either seems to have a huge game as a receiver with nothing as a runner, or vice versa.
But Brandon Aiyuk shined with some of his best games last year against the Rams with Garoppolo as his quarterback. Aiyuk had 107 yards in the Week 18 finale, and he came back with 69 yards on 4 catches in the title game.
He caught the only touchdown the 49ers had in Denver last week, though he finished with just 39 yards, a season-low. Look for him to get at least 50 yards in this game as Garoppolo gets more comfortable in his second start against a defense they have had some past success against.
The Rams have also allowed 56 catches to wide receivers, tied with the Ravens for the most in the league this year on defense.
NFL Prop Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Safest Bet TD Scorer: Rams’ Cooper Kupp
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-130)
Finally, if there is any such thing as a safe bet in this game, it is Cooper Kupp finding the end zone. Even when he has 44 receiving yards, his lowest game since 2020, against Arizona last week, he still finds a way to score on a 20-yard touchdown run.
Kupp had a touchdown in Week 18 against the 49ers, and he had two scores in the NFC Championship Game. It was also his third 100-yard game of 2021 against the 49ers. You would think that defense might have a better clue on how to stop him, but he was as dominant as ever in the third matchup, making critical plays on third down and in the red zone.
There should not be high expectations for a lot of touchdowns to be scored in this game, but if you need a safe bet, Kupp is the player to back. He has scored in 18 of his last 24 games.
NFL Prop Pick: Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-130) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.