Best NFL Week 17 Player Props for Sunday: Fade Sam Darnold in Division Title Game 

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Sam Darnold #14 of the Carolina Panthers throws the ball against the Seattle Seahawks. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

NFL Prop Pick: Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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The NFL’s Week 17 Sunday schedule is a full one with key matchups between the Panthers-Buccaneers, Vikings-Packers, and Jets-Seahawks. 

We have picked out our favorite player props with the best NFL odds that you can find at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles. 

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Sunday, January 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium 

Sam Darnold (Carolina Panthers) 

  • Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted 

For the first time in his career, Sam Darnold has not thrown an interception in four straight games in the same season. This encompasses his full 2022 season since the Panthers made him the starter again. 

But we have been nearly fooled by Darnold in Carolina before like when the team started 3-0 with him in 2021. Avoiding interceptions has never been a strong part of his game, and he has mostly leaned on the run in his games this season. 

But this is the biggest game of his career as the division title is on the line – Tampa Bay wins it with a win – and he is on the road against a defense that ranks No. 7 in points allowed. 

The Buccaneers have not been getting many takeaways this season, but they came up with three last week (two fumbles and one interception) against backup Trace McSorley in Arizona to win that game. 

Tampa Bay Will Be More Motivated on Sunday

Tampa Bay has been projected to win this sad division all year long. The remaining quarterbacks on the schedule were the main reason why the oddsmakers still were not sweating things when the Buccaneers were 6-8.

Look for the defense to step up again and intercept Darnold while holding the Panthers down on the scoreboard to claim the NFC South for your NFL picks.  

If you're located in the Tampa area and are looking to make a wager on this game, make sure to visit our guide on the best Florida betting sites to find the perfect fit for you!

NFL Prop Pick: Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-115) at Bovada 

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons 

Sunday, January 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium 

Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta Falcons) 

  • Over 75.5 Rushing Yards 

Tyler Allgeier has a solid chance of finishing his rookie year with over 1,000 yards rushing and leading his draft class in rushing. He needs 183 yards in the last two games to reach 1,000. 

We know the Falcons love to run the ball, and Allgeier has only seen his touches increase late in the season as he has earned those touches over Cordarrelle Patterson. Allgeier has 74 and 139 yards in his last two games on the ground. 

Allgeier Coming on Strong Late in the Season

Five of Allgeier’s top seven rushing games this season have come since Week 11. The Cardinals are not a great run defense, and they are 0-10 when teams rush for over 100 yards on them this season.

Look for Atlanta to give Allgeier the ball as much as possible to take pressure off rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder and to get Allgeier as close to 1,000 yards as possible with one game left. 

NFL Prop Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada 

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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs 

Sunday, January 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium 

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) 

  • Under 0.5 Passes Intercepted 

When these teams last met in Week 14 in Denver, the Chiefs led 27-0 and it was looking like it would be their biggest blowout of the season. But Patrick Mahomes threw a couple of interceptions, and the Broncos were on their way back behind a rare solid performance from Russell Wilson. 

Mahomes was intercepted for a third time in the game, tying his career high, but the Chiefs were able to escape with a 34-28 win, their 14th in a row over the Broncos. 

That game is the only time in 10 games against Denver that Mahomes was intercepted multiple times. He has seven games this season with zero interceptions, and it would have been eight if he wasn’t in desperation mode against the Colts after the Chiefs blew the lead in the final 30 seconds.

Broncos Are in Disarray

Do not expect Denver to be leading in this game after the Broncos were blown out 51-14 by the Rams last week and fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett. 

Mahomes knows the picks last time were not good and they initially put him behind Jalen Hurts in the MVP race for the first time this year. Mahomes has since regained the lead with Hurts’ injury and look for him to protect the ball better and get the win in a clean game without a pick here.  

NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-135) at Bovada 

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers 

Sunday, January 1, 2023 – 04:25 PM EST at Lambeau Field 

Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) 

  • Over 95.5 Receiving Yards 

When Jefferson faced the Packers in Week 1 this season, he had a career-high 184 yards and looked unstoppable. The Packers do not bother to match up corner Jaire Alexander with the top receiver as often as they should given his contract. 

Since that game, Jefferson has twice reset his career high in receiving yards with 193 yards in Buffalo and 223 yards against the Lions. He leads the NFL with 1,756 receiving yards and is only 244 away from the first 2,000-yard receiving season in NFL history. 

That is asking a lot for 244 yards in two games that will be played outside in Green Bay and Chicago, but these are division foes the Vikings know, they are not great defenses, and the Vikings are still trying to hold off the 49ers for the No. 2 seed in the NFC. 

Jefferson’s Big Year Continues

Jefferson has gone over 95.5 yards in all but four games this year as his consistency is close to what Cooper Kupp was doing for the Rams last year in coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense. 

But playing outside in January in Green Bay should not scare you off Jefferson in this matchup. 

Last season in Week 17, the Vikings had to start Sean Mannion in Green Bay in 11-degree weather with Kirk Cousins out for COVID, and Jefferson still had 58 yards on six catches and 11 targets.

With Cousins at quarterback and the way this team is chasing the No. 2 seed and potentially 2,000 yards for Jefferson, they should be able to put up another 100-yard game to put him Over in this matchup. 

NFL Prop Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 95.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada 

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New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 

Sunday, January 1, 2023 – 04:05 PM EST at Lumen Field 

Kenneth Walker (Seattle Seahawks) 

  • Over 68.5 Rushing Yards 

Injuries at the running back position likely cost the Jets and Seahawks an Offensive Rookie of the Year award for their draft pick this season. Breece Hall looked great for the Jets before he tore his ACL. Then it was Kenneth Walker in Seattle who took the torch and ran with it until he too was injured. Since his return, things have not gone as well, but he did rush for 107 yards in Kansas City last week. 

The Jets are a good defense, but they have not held a team under 99 rushing yards since Week 6. The Jaguars just rushed for 147 yards last week with Travis Etienne picking up 83 yards on 22 carries. That is the kind of game the Seahawks would love to get from Walker this week to take some pressure off Geno Smith, who will be facing his old team here. 

The Seahawks do not have much left at running back after Walker, so he should get the bulk of carries again like he did last week when he got 26-of-28 running back carries in Kansas City. 

The passing game looked off without Tyler Lockett, though he may return Sunday. Either way, Pete Carroll is going to want to balance the offense with Walker and it is not asking much for him to get 69 yards here. 

NFL Prop Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada 

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.