Best NFL Week 16 Player Props for Saturday: Let Geno Smith Cook in Kansas City

profile image of scottkacsmar

NFL Prop Pick: Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)
Visit Site

The NFL has 11 games this Saturday for the Christmas Eve part of the Week 16 schedule. We are dialed in on key matchups such as Eagles-Cowboys, Seahawks-Chiefs, and Raiders-Steelers.

We have figured out our favorite player props with the best betting odds that you can find at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles.


Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday, December 24, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)

  • Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

We knew there was an imbalance of too much young quarterback talent in the AFC and not enough in the NFC, but who could have imagined Geno Smith would make the Pro Bowl with Seattle?

Smith has more touchdown passes (26) than anyone in the NFC, and he still leads the league with 71.4% of his passes completed. The Seahawks are stumbling down the stretch here with a 1-4 record, and this will be another tough one, with the Chiefs favored by 10 points at home. But Smith’s play has still been impressive even through the slide with 68.8% complete, 11 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a 102.4 passer rating.

The bad news is Smith won’t have Tyler Lockett this week due to injury, but veteran Marquise Goodwin has made some plays this year and should step up in Lockett’s place. DK Metcalf is also still going strong.

The Prop Pick

Smith has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but three games this year, and two of those were against the 49ers, the best defense in the league. The Chiefs are a below-average defense, and that is likely putting it kindly.

Kansas City has allowed 30 touchdown passes, five more than any other defense going into Week 16. We know you have to put up at least 27 points to go into Kansas City and win against Patrick Mahomes, but we love for Geno to have a big passing game and add at least two more to his total to make this one more interesting.

If you're planning on placing your wager for this game from Washington, check out our guide on the best Washington betting sites.

NFL Prop Pick: Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115) at Bovada


Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears

Saturday, December 24, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Soldier Field

Gabriel Davis (Buffalo Bills)

  • Over 2.5 Receptions

Davis has not had the dominant breakout season some were hoping for after he caught four touchdowns and had over 200 yards against the Chiefs in the playoffs, but he is still a productive No. 2 receiver behind Stefon Diggs in Buffalo.

Since Week 10, Davis has seen his route tree expand as he averages 4.0 catches per game compared to 2.6 catches per game to start the season. It’s not just the occasional deep ball anymore.

Davis has gone over 2.5 receptions in five of his last six games and 9-of-13 games for the whole season.

The Prop Pick

We know the Bears allow shorter passes on average, and their pass rush is one of the worst in the league. Josh Allen should have plenty of time to find his receivers, though the weather may make this a game where throwing is limited.

Still, it’s only three catches to hit the over, and we just watched Davis haul in four balls in the cold and eventually snow game against Miami. Trust his over in catches here for your NFL picks.

NFL Prop Pick: Gabriel Davis Over 2.5 Receptions (-125) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Gabriel Davis Over 2.5 Receptions (-125)
Visit Site

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers

Saturday, December 24, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions)

  • Over 73.5 Receiving Yards

The Lions are continuing their playoff push and Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of it. He is averaging 90 yards per game since the Lions started turning things around following a 1-6 start.

A little down period early in the season when St. Brown had some injuries hurt his numbers and likely led to his Pro Bowl snub, but he should have all the motivation in the world to perform well in this must-win game for the Lions.

Diontae Johnson of the Steelers did whatever he wanted in Carolina last week, and St. Brown is a similar but even better receiver who can work the slot and move around the field. Jared Goff trusts him in any spot, and he gets double-digit targets more often than not in this offense.

The Prop Pick

Most game scripts should be favorable to the over in this one, as St. Brown can either dominate as the No. 1 wide receiver, or he can get a lot of targets while playing catch-up in case the Carolina run game gets back on track against Detroit’s defense.

But in another big game for the Lions, you can trust St. Brown to deliver.

NFL Prop Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Visit Site

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

Saturday, December 24, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at AT&T Stadium

Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)

  • Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

We now know it is going to be Gardner Minshew at quarterback for the Eagles instead of Jalen Hurts, but that should not deter the Cowboys from playing differently as it could still be a very high-scoring game given the talent of the Eagles.

Prescott has thrown over 1.5 touchdowns in 6 of 7 games coming into Saturday, and he usually does better at home anyway. Prescott threw eight touchdowns against the Eagles in two games in 2021, though the five he had in Week 18 were against a Philadelphia team playing a ton of backups.

The Prop Pick

Still, he threw three touchdowns in the last home meeting in Dallas too. He’ll want to make up for last week’s loss in Jacksonville even if his throw in overtime that was intercepted for a touchdown was better than the live angle showed.

The Cowboys have had some unfortunate bounces with turnovers this year, but Prescott is still putting up several touchdown drives a week. Count on him to do it again here with a few scoring tosses through the air.

NFL Prop Pick: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
Visit Site

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, December 24, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Acrisure Stadium

Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers)

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Game Winner Parlay

It will be a cold and emotional Saturday night for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were already planning to retire Franco Harris’ number and celebrate the 50th anniversary of The Immaculate Reception, but it has taken on a new turn after Harris’ sudden passing on Wednesday at 72 years old.

The Steelers were already amped up to play this game for Harris against an old rival, but this will just add to the atmosphere of the game. Najee Harris in particular would be a great choice to shine as he plays Harris’ position and shares his surname.

Najee also has been playing good football as of late for the Steelers, and he has found the end zone in 4 of 5 games coming into Saturday night. It’s going to be the coldest game in Pittsburgh since 1989, so expect a lot of running. With Kenny Pickett having a historically low touchdown pass rate, it’s really on Harris to provide a touchdown or two. He should have no problem getting that.

As for winning the game to hit our parlay pick, that’s where the defense comes in. T.J. Watt made the Pro Bowl despite missing half the season and having the least productive seven games of his career. But he is still a threat, and Alex Highsmith has 11 sacks and five forced fumbles.

The Betting Pick

Derek Carr is 0-6 in the coldest NFL games he has ever played, and he’s never thrown multiple touchdowns or led the Raiders to 20 points in any of those six games. The Steelers have struggled with Carr and the Raiders in the past, though it was mostly because of their pass defense letting them down. That should not be the case with the kind of negative wind chill expected on Saturday night.

Trust the Steelers to honor Harris, get a good game out of Najee, and to win this game to improve to 7-8 for your NFL picks.

NFL Prop Pick: Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Game Winner Parlay (+200) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Game Winner Parlay (+200)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.