NFL Prop Pick: Justin Jefferson Under 95.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL brings back its December tradition of a Saturday triple-header for Week 15. Justin Jefferson (1,500) is just 40 yards ahead of Tyreek Hill (1,460) for the lead in receiving yards.
We have our favorite prop picks for Colts-Vikings, Ravens-Browns, and Dolphins-Bills. You can find these props at any of the best sportsbooks.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings
Saturday, December 17, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium
Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts)
- Over 254.5 Passing Yards
- Over 22.5 Pass Completions
The Colts had a bye week to get over their brutal 33-0 blowout in the 4th quarter in Dallas after hanging tough for 45 minutes with the Cowboys. Since Jeff Saturday has taken over as interim coach in Week 10, Matt Ryan’s passing numbers are down:
- Ryan’s averages before Saturday: 29 completions, 42.4 attempts, 286.9 passing yards.
- Ryan’s averages after Saturday: 21.8 completions, 32.8 attempts, 216.8 passing yards.
But this is about the matchup. Ryan won’t be seeing the pass rush that the Cowboys or Eagles have in this game. The Minnesota defense has been recently terrible, allowing 5 straight opponents to pass for over 300 yards. On the season, Minnesota has allowed 9-of-13 opponents to pass for over 270 yards.
In Ryan’s last two trips to Minnesota in 2019-20, he had at least 30 completions and 300 yards in both games, including 4 touchdown passes in 2020’s win. He may not be able to do that well in this Indianapolis offense this year, but he should be able to hit his overs in yards and completions.
The Prop Picks
He could be facing another benching if he doesn’t play a sharp game coming off the bye, so there is even more motivation besides the poor defense he’s facing.
NFL Prop Pick: Matt Ryan Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-109) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Matt Ryan Over 22.5 Pass Completions (+104) at Bovada
Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings)
- Under 95.5 Receiving Yards
It may be blasphemous to take the under on the receiver with 1,500 yards in 13 games, but Jefferson has had some stinkers where he’s been held under 50 yards this year, including a career-low 14 yards at home against Detroit.
Jefferson made up for that with a career-high 223 yards against Detroit on Sunday, though that came in a losing effort, the first time this season the Vikings lost a game when Jefferson went over 95 yards.
Jefferson has gone over 95.5 yards in 9-of-13 games this year, but the Colts have only allowed two 90-yard receivers in 2022: Davante Adams (126) and Terry McLaurin (113).
Jefferson has already set his career high in receiving yards twice this season only to disappoint the next game. He went from 184 yards to 48 yards the first time, and 193 yards to 33 yards the second time.
The Prop Pick
The Colts are sneaky good on defense. They are the only team to hold the Chiefs and Eagles under 20 points this season (17 each).
We are relying on that defensive success and banking on some more regression to the mean for Jefferson.
NFL Prop Pick: Justin Jefferson Under 95.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at Bovada
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Saturday, December 17, 2022 - 04:30 PM EST at FirstEnergy Stadium
Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns)
- Over 28.5 Pass Attempts
- Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted
Cleveland’s offense has 16 points in 8 quarters with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Jacoby Brissett failed to put up more than 16 points in just one start for the Browns this year, so they are not getting adequate quarterback play from Watson so far.
Watson’s rust and struggles are making it hard to trust any facet of this offense, including the usually reliable Nick Chubb. But Chubb also has had a rough time with the Baltimore defense in his career.
That is why our favorite NFL picks here for value are counting on Watson to throw it often enough and to get intercepted at least once. He has thrown a pick in each of his first 2 starts for Cleveland, and the Ravens just got 3 picks from Mitch Trubisky in Pittsburgh last week. Watson also has one interception in each career meeting with the Ravens, who he is 0-2 against.
The Prop Picks
This is not an elite Baltimore defense, but it is a good one with 14 interceptions in 13 games. Trust the Ravens to put pressure on Watson and force him to throw over 30 times with a pick.
NFL Prop Pick: Deshaun Watson Over 28.5 Pass Attempts (-129) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Deshaun Watson Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-109) at Bovada
Tyler Huntley (Baltimore Ravens)
- Over 44.5 Rushing Yards
Tyler Huntley suffered a concussion last week in Pittsburgh, but he is on track to start again in place of Lamar Jackson (PCL). Huntley finished last week with 9 carries for 31 yards, but he also missed 38% of the game’s snaps due to the concussion.
Huntley has rushed for at least 40 yards in his 6 other major appearances for the Ravens, including a couple of 70-yard games. Oddly enough, Huntley had 6 runs for 45 yards against the Browns a year ago when Jackson was injured, and Huntley had to enter the game and complete it.
The Prop Pick
Maybe this line is a cute nod to that, but the Ravens are not going to change who they are after the concussion. Look for Huntley to continue scrambling and getting designed runs to hit the over here.
NFL Prop Pick: Tyler Huntley Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-112) at Bovada
Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Ravens are well aware that Mark Andrews has not caught a touchdown since Week 6. He didn’t even catch a pass in Week 7 against Cleveland, though Lamar Jackson only had 9 completions that day. That was also the beginning of some injury issues for Andrews, which have not helped his production since.
But Week 7 withstanding, Cleveland has been a great opponent for Andrews. He has 7 touchdowns in 9 games against the Browns, including one thrown by Huntley last year. Andrews has scored a touchdown in 5of his last 7 games against the Browns.
The Prop Pick
The drought has to end eventually. The Ravens did not throw much last week in Pittsburgh with the run game working and Huntley going out with a concussion.
Let’s count on more passing this time and for Andrews to find the end zone.
NFL Prop Pick: Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+230) at Bovada
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Saturday, December 17, 2022 - 08:15 PM EST at Highmark Stadium
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
- Under 236.5 Passing Yards
- Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Dolphins have a few obstacles on Saturday, including a tough divisional opponent, the offense’s recent struggles, and the weather.
Tua Tagovailoa is 1-3 against the Bills with a very fortunate win in Week 3 despite the Bills having nearly 300 more yards. That was the game that started Tua’s concussion problems, but he still played 93% of the snaps. Buffalo just dominated possession, so he only finished with 18 passes and 186 yards.
But Tua has struggled the last 2 weeks with the 49ers and Chargers in good weather conditions. How is he going to handle a Buffalo defense in what could be a game played in freezing temperatures with 9 inches of snow?
The forecast is calling for lake-effect snow on Saturday in Buffalo. It won’t be the blizzard that happened last month to force the Bills to play in Detroit, but this could be a significant snow game, which is a disadvantage to Miami.
The Prop Picks
Tagovailoa only passed for 145 yards against the Chargers. He has 2 touchdown passes in 119 attempts against the Bills in his career. We’ll gladly take his Unders for yards and passing touchdowns in this matchup.
NFL Prop Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 236.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200) at Bovada
Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins)
- Under 75.5 Receiving Yards
In the playoffs, Tyreek Hill is the Grim Reaper for the Bills. He has 322 yards in the last 2 playoff meetings with the Bills while he was with Kansas City. But in the regular season, Hill has been a ghost against Buffalo.
In 4 games in the regular season, Hill has 19 catches for 157 yards against the Bills. He’s never gone over 63 yards in any game, and he had just 33 yards on two catches in Week 3 with Miami. Hill’s speed could be neutralized if the field is a slippery mess.
When you factor in Buffalo’s defense, the potential snow and wind, and Hill’s leg injury that kept him off the field for some snaps in Los Angeles, this is not a good matchup for him to pile up yards.
The Prop Pick
Let’s trust the matchup since it is a regular-season game, and the Bills will hold Hill under 75.5 yards again.
For Miami residents looking to bet on this game, you can do it at our top Florida betting sites.
NFL Prop Pick: Tyreek Hill Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Devin Singletary (Buffalo Bills)
- Over 42.5 Rushing Yards
In Week 3, Singletary had a season-low 13 rushing yards on 9 carries as Josh Allen had 75 action plays in Miami’s extreme heat. Look for more balance this time, especially if the weather is as bad as predicted.
Singletary’s history against Miami is also bizarre, as his rushing totals were night and day against the Dolphins:
- 2019: 26 yards to 75 yards (+49).
- 2020: 56 yards to 7 yards (-49).
- 2021: 82 yards to 28 yards (-54).
- 2022: 13 yards to TBD.
The Prop Pick
Who knows, maybe there will be another 50-yard swing and he’ll have over 60 this week. All we know is 42.5 is a low bar and the Bills should be running more in this matchup.
Following the NFL odds, let’s go with Singletary’s Over.
NFL Prop Pick: Devin Singletary Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
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