One of the best Sunday schedules of the 2022 NFL season is here with Week 13. We are focusing on matchups such as Browns-Titans, Chiefs-Bengals, and Dolphins-49ers.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
George Pickens (Pittsburgh Steelers)
- Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
No defenses have allowed more 20-yard pass plays than the Steelers and Falcons (45 each) this season. We could be in store for one of those Steelers-Falcons shootouts that seem to pop up every four years since 2002.
George Pickens showed once again on Monday night that he is a very talented rookie receiver. He is averaging 55.6 yards per game since Kenny Pickett entered the game at quarterback in Week 4.
Pickens had 83 yards against Cincinnati two weeks ago and 57 yards on three catches in Indianapolis. He draws a great matchup here as the Falcons are awful at rushing the passer and they are in the bottom five at giving up passing yards.
Atlanta hasn’t allowed many receiving yards in the last three games, but that is because the Falcons played Carolina (P.J. Walker in the rain), Chicago (Justin Fields), and Washington (Taylor Heinicke in the rain).
This game is in the dome, and while Pickett isn’t Ben Roethlisberger yet, he is going to throw his share of passes. Pickens is his favorite receiver and he should shine as many receivers have against the Falcons this year. Corner A.J. Terrell has been very disappointing in his third season.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium
Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns)
- Over 91.5 Rushing Yards
What is the best way for the Browns to ease Deshaun Watson into his first start with the team and his first NFL action since the end of the 2020 season? You ride Nick Chubb against a run defense that has been embarrassing since Week 1. Simple as that.
If you don’t want Watson to hear the boos every time he drops back, you hand it off to one of the league’s best backs after he just had 116 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. Chubb has gone over 91.5 yards in 6-of-11 games this season, but this is about the matchup.
While only six players in 11 games have rushed for over 91.5 yards against Houston, when they go over, they tend to go way over. The Texans have allowed five performances of over 140 rushing yards:
- Derrick Henry (Titans): 219 yards
- Jonathan Taylor (Colts): 161 yards
- Khalil Herbert (Bears): 157 yards
- Saquon Barkley (Giants): 152 yards
- Josh Jacobs (Raiders): 143 yards
There are plenty of elite runners in that group, but Chubb is certainly in that tier. Chubb has gone for 126 and 95 rushing yards against Houston the last two years, but this Houston run defense is the worst of the bunch.
Unless Watson completely falls apart and the Browns fall behind multiple scores early, Chubb should be nearly a lock to go over in rushing for your NFL picks.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Paycor Stadium
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
- Under 0.5 Passes Intercepted
One of the biggest games this weekend is the AFC Championship Game rematch between the Chiefs and Bengals. Joe Burrow led the Bengals back from deficits of 14 and 18 points to sweep the Chiefs.
He was great in the home game with big plays all over the field on his way to 446 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Burrow was intercepted in the fourth quarter of the playoff game, but he generally does a good job of avoiding those mistakes at home. He’s also looking to get his best receiver Ja’Marr Chase back just in time for this one.
Burrow threw four picks in Week 1 at home to Pittsburgh, but he has not been intercepted at home since. He’s only thrown four other picks since Week 1.
The Chiefs only have six interceptions all season on defense, and most of those are in desperate situations for the opponent in the fourth quarter. Look for the Bengals to give the Chiefs another tough game and for Burrow to play well and avoid the big turnover through the air again.
NFL Prop Pick: Joe Burrow Under 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-125) at Bovada
Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 04:05 PM EST at Levi’s Stadium
Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)
- Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
We’ll give the 49ers their flowers for having the best defense in the NFL through Week 12. But a lot of their success is built on stopping the run cold better than any defense. Against the pass, these 49ers are nowhere close to a historically great defense. They also have played arguably just two quarterbacks who are playing well right now, and one of them was Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 423 yards with ease.
The other was Justin Herbert, who had a strong first half before he failed to score a point after halftime. The 49ers have not allowed any points after halftime in four straight games. No team since 1950 has done that in five straight games.
The 49ers will get a great test this week. Tua Tagovailoa is having one of the best seasons this year by how well he is throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Everyone knows about Hill, but Waddle has been over 66.5 yards in 8-of-11 games this season. One game he finished with 66 yards, and the other two were the games Tua missed and Waddle himself was gimpy in the second half against the Bengals. Waddle has been very consistent this season.
It is not impossible to throw on the 49ers this year. The 49ers have allowed 11 receivers to go over 66.5 yards, including a handful of 100-yard games. While great talents such as Cooper Kupp (twice), Travis Kelce, and DeAndre Hopkins are on that list, so are Greg Dortch (103 yards), Shi Smith (69 yards), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (111).
Look for Waddle to come up big in this one and hit his over.
NFL Prop Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-130) at Bovada
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Allegiant Stadium
Austin Ekeler (Los Angeles Chargers)
- Under 50.5 Rushing Yards
Austin Ekeler is a great, all-around running back, but he has not been the most effective rusher for an offense that ranks 30th in rushing (yards and yards per carry). Ekeler had 173 of his 554 rushing yards this season (31.2%) against Cleveland.
Ekeler has been held under 50 rushing yards in 8-of-11 games this season. The Raiders held him to 36 yards on 14 carries in Week 1 despite the Chargers leading that game at home for most of the day.
Some of Ekeler’s rushing production from past years has transferred over to short catches as he is averaging a career-high 7.3 receptions per game but at a career-low 6.2 yards per catch. Beyond his lack of rushing and the Raiders stopping him in Week 1, the Raiders just went into Seattle and held Kenneth Walker, potentially the Rookie of the Year, to 14 carries for 26 yards.
Ekeler will likely find the end zone in this one and get his share of catches and receiving yards, but we like him to be held under 50 rushing again.
NFL Prop Pick: Austin Ekeler Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bovada
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