Best NFL Week 12 Player Props for the Weekend: More History for Patrick Mahomes?

profile image of scottkacsmar
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to the sidelines against Los Angeles Chargers. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP.

Make room for leftovers after Thanksgiving as the NFL’s Week 12 slate still has a dozen games this Sunday for you to bet on the best player props. We are looking at NFL player props from matchups such as Falcons vs. Commanders, Rams vs. Chiefs, and Packers vs. Eagles.

We have collected our favorite handful of player props that you can find at many of the best sportsbooks. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles.

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool With Weekly Prizes

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at FedExField

Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders)

  • Over 60.5 Receiving Yards

How impressive has Terry McLaurin been this season? He has two 100-yard receiving games against the Eagles, a defense that has not allowed any other player to hit 80 receiving yards so far.

Washington does not pass much, but McLaurin has six games with 70-plus yards this year. When he played the Falcons last year, he had 123 yards and two touchdowns in one of his best games in the NFL. Taylor Heinicke was also his quarterback for that one, which will be the case here.

The Falcons have not had a bye week yet, so the stats are skewed, but they have allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. They also have the worst pass rush in the league, and a poor pass rush has usually meant good things for Heinicke’s passing production in his career.

This game likely won’t repeat the 34-30 shootout these teams had in the dome last year in Atlanta, but McLaurin only has to hit half his yardage from that game to hit his over here. Count on him to do it for your NFL picks.

NFL Prop Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Visit Site

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 04:05 PM EST at Lumen Field

Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)

  • Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

What happens when you put the quarterback leading the league in completion percentage against the defense that is allowing the highest rate of completions? We’ll find out on Sunday when Geno Smith comes off his bye with his 72.8% completion percentage to face the Raiders and their 71.5% completion percentage allowed.

The results should be quite good since Smith has not dinked and dunked his way to this number like a Sam Bradford or Alex Smith would in the past. He is getting the ball down the field accurately and helping the offense score points.

Without a pass rush, the Raiders are going to have a hard time in this matchup. If you expect the ball to rarely hit the ground for Geno along with the usual mix of runs from a Pete Carroll team, then this game may not have a ton of possessions or plays, making it difficult to bet any overs.

That is why we’ll settle on Smith to throw multiple touchdowns for the ninth time in 11 games this year. He has been as reliable as any quarterback you can name this year at doing that. Even when the Seahawks saw their four-game winning streak end in Germany against Tampa Bay, Smith did a great job to throw two touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Following the NFL odds, let him tear up the terrible pass rush from Vegas.

NFL Prop Pick: Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
Visit Site

Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

  • Over 284.5 Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes is in rare form after throwing for 329 yards last week in another comeback win over the Chargers. The 329 yards were actually Mahomes’s fewest over the last five games, but he can tie Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon as the only quarterbacks to throw for over 325 yards in six consecutive games.

The roadblock this week may be the most unusual game of Mahomes’s career based on expectations. The Chiefs are a 15.5-point home favorite against the Rams at Missouri betting sites with a total of 42.5 points. The spread is the third largest for a Mahomes start, and the total is the lowest yet.

You might think if the Chiefs blow the Rams out, Mahomes won’t throw for that many yards because of the game script. However, when he was a 20-point favorite against the 2020 Jets at home, still the largest spread of his career, Mahomes still found a way to throw for 416 yards and five touchdowns in a 35-9 rout.

The guy is not human, and the Kansas City defense is not elite. The Chiefs have allowed at least 17 points in 15 straight games going back to last year. If Sean McVay is as good of a coach as many think he is, he’ll find a way for the game to not be a 35-9 rout with the mobile Bryce Perkins at quarterback.

It won’t be anything like 54-51 when these teams last met in 2018, but Mahomes has a great chance to throw for another 300-yard game here.

NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 284.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Patrick Mahomes Over 284.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Visit Site

Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium

Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins)

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Until a few weeks ago, Tyreek Hill was leading the league in receiving yards despite only scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter in Baltimore in Miami’s first eight games. The regression was going to come as all these yards should lead to more scores from someone who was a frequent scorer in Kansas City.

Now Hill has scored touchdowns in consecutive games and has a great matchup against Houston to make it three in a row. All season we have been playing running backs against the Houston defense, and it was paying off in a big way. But last week, the Commanders got zero rushing touchdowns from backs Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson despite some decent yardage from both.

Maybe we need to let the touchdown regression hit Houston too as it allows scores from other sources like Washington receiver Curtis Samuel on a running play. Hill can do that too, or he can be used on a little jet sweep or push pass to get a cheap score inside the 5-yard line.

There are many ways for Hill to score and it doesn’t feel like Miami is anywhere close to exploring them all. We love Hill to score in this matchup along with several of his teammates like new running back Jeff Wilson and fellow wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.

NFL Prop Pick: Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150)
Visit Site

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 08:25 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

  • Under 232.5 Passing Yards

When a great player is struggling, injury can often be part of the reason for that. Aaron Rodgers has not looked right in this offense without Davante Adams since Week 1, but a broken thumb suffered in Week 5 in London cannot help matters either.

Rodgers is averaging a career-low 231.1 passing yards per game this season and a career-low 10.5 yards per completion this season as well. He has yet to have a 300-yard passing game, and he has finished under 232.5 yards in 6-of-11 games. Rodgers has finished under 230 yards in four of his last five games.

The other side to this is the Philadelphia defense, which excels at corners shutting down wide receivers outside the numbers, or what used to be the bread-and-butter to Rodgers’s passing attack.

The Eagles have held nine out of 10 quarterbacks faced under 221.5 passing yards this season. Kyler Murray (250 yards) was the only quarterback to finish above that, and he only achieved it on the final drive in the last two minutes of the game.

Have the Eagles faced any quarterback heading to the Pro Bowl this year? Probably not, and Rodgers even has an argument as the best of the bunch that they will see through 11 games.

But he is going through the worst season of his career, and I do not see him putting up a lot of yards in this game. It may even be smarter to lean on the run more since that is where the Eagles are vulnerable, and the Packers have a good duo in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

NFL Prop Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 232.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Aaron Rodgers Under 232.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.