Best NFL Week 11 Player Props for the Weekend: Trust Derek Carr to Pass On Denver’s Top-Ranked Defense

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Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders warms up prior to the game against the Indianapolis Colts. Sam Morris/Getty Images/AFP.

The NFL’s Week 11 slate has some exciting matchups for player prop picks such as Bears-Falcons, Commanders-Texans, and Cowboys-Vikings. We also have a bold prediction for Derek Carr in Denver.

We have come up with our favorite handful of player props that you can find at many of the best sportsbooks. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles.

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Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Justin Fields (Chicago Bears)

  • Over 177.5 Passing Yards

The Bears cannot keep rushing for over 230 yards every week, can they? They have already set the NFL record by doing that in the last 5 games, including a record 240-plus rushing yards in 4 straight games.

But with Khalil Herbert out for at least a month with injury, that should have an impact on the rushing production. He was averaging 6.0 yards per carry and playing like one of the best backs in the league while David Montgomery is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry, below the league average.

Of course, Justin Fields just became the first quarterback to ever rush for 140 yards in back-to-back games. But at some point, he is going to realize he needs to throw more, especially if this team is going to start closing out games instead of losing close ones. The Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose 3 straight games after scoring at least 29 points.

Atlanta’s pass defense is not good, the game is in a dome on this wintry weekend across the country, and with Herbert out, let’s bank on Fields toning down his runs and putting more into the passing game to hit a low over.

The Prop Pick

Fields did go Over 177.5 passing yards 3 weeks in a row in Weeks 5-7, so he can do it here. Even P.J. Walker of the Panthers had a 300-yard passing game in Atlanta a few weeks ago.

Let’s see more passes to help our NFL picks, Chicago.

NFL Prop Pick: Justin Fields Over 177.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, November 20, 2022 - 04:25 PM EST at Acrisure Stadium

Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)

  • Under 252.5 Passing Yards

The Bengals are back in action after a bye and the jury is out on Joe Burrow against the Steelers after 4 starts in 3 seasons. He struggled in Pittsburgh as a rookie as expected, but he was very calm and accurate in both meetings last season despite not passing for 200 yards in either game.

But in Week 1 this year, Burrow was a wreck against Pittsburgh with 4 interceptions, 7 sacks, and a lost fumble. Still, he passed for 338 yards and would have won the game if not for missed kicks.

Now Burrow has to face a Pittsburgh defense on the road that will have T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick together for the first time since that Week 1 meeting. Burrow also will not have Ja’Marr Chase as his hip injury is still keeping him out. Tee Higgins is healthy and left the Week 1 game with a concussion, but Burrow is better when Chase is on the field rather than Higgins serving as the No. 1.

There’s also the fact that Burrow has a ridiculous home-road split in his career:

  • Burrow at home: 320.1 passing yards per game, 8.64 yards per pass attempt
  • Burrow on road: 244.1 passing yards per game, 7.01 yards per pass attempt

The Prop Pick

The Steelers just held Andy Dalton Under 175 yards with their best player (Watt) back.

Let’s go with them to keep Burrow Under his line on the road once again in this one as he misses Chase.

NFL Prop Pick: Joe Burrow Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, November 20, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium

Dameon Pierce (Houston Texans)

  • Under 79.5 Rushing Yards

The common play this season has been to bet the Over on a running back facing the Texans, but what about Houston’s rookie? Dameon Pierce has been a fourth-round steal for the team. He has rushed for over 79.5 yards in 6-of-9 games already this season, so the Under might seem like a bold call.

But the Washington defense has done a very good job against running backs this year. Only Derrick Henry (102) and Justin Fields (88) have broken 80 rushing yards against the Commanders in 2022. Concerning Nick Chubb and Lamar Jackson, Henry and Fields may be the best runners at their position in the league right now.

Pierce looks good, but he doesn’t look generationally good. He also just had a 35-yard game against Tennessee a few weeks ago. Washington has held Jonathan Taylor (76), Dalvin Cook (47), Ezekiel Elliott (49), and Miles Sanders twice (46 and 54) under 80 yards this year.

The Washington defense should be good with all the first-round picks spent in the front 7 over the years. But the biggest name in that group has been missing as Chase Young recovers from his ACL injury suffered last season.

But Young is expecting to make his season debut this Sunday.

The Prop Pick

Even if Young is on a pitch count, the defense should be excited about his return and amped up over upsetting the Eagles on Monday night.

Following the NFL odds, let’s go with them to hold Pierce Under 80 yards as well.

NFL Prop Pick: Dameon Pierce Under 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bovada

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, November 20, 2022 - 04:25 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium

CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys)

  • Over 75.5 Receiving Yards

All eyes will be on Minnesota wide receiver Justin Jefferson, but CeeDee Lamb is the player who has shined in the last 2 Cowboys-Vikings games. He caught a brilliant touchdown in the 2020 meeting, then had 112 yards last season with Cooper Rush as his quarterback in another comeback win.

Lamb just had his first 100-yard game of the season at Green Bay with a career-high 150 yards. He has hit 70 yards in all 3 games since Dak Prescott returned as a quarterback.

The Vikings have already allowed 9 80-yard receivers this year, including 4 players to go over 120 receiving yards. Stefon Diggs had 128 yards for Buffalo last week. Lamb will be licking his chops against a defense that allows 7.9 yards per pass attempt, the second-worst average in the league.

The Prop Pick

Jefferson may put on a show too, but we are taking Lamb to hit his Over in receiving yards in Sunday’s big NFC game.

NFL Prop Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 77.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 04:05 PM EST at Empower Field at Mile High

Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders)

  • Over 229.5 Passing Yards

Derek Carr leads the 2-7 Raiders, minus 2 of his best receivers (Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow), into Denver to take on the No. 1 passing defense and No. 1 scoring defense that already held him to 188 yards in Week 4.

So, why would you ever take the over in this rematch? There are many good reasons for it as the NFL often does not make sense like this:

  • Carr has passed for over 240 yards in 7-of-9 games this season.
  • In the last 4 years in Denver, Carr has passed for 288, 391, 371, and 341 yards, his 4 highest games in 16 career games against his AFC West rivals.
  • The Broncos just allowed a season-high 255 passing yards to Ryan Tannehill last week.
  • Denver’s No. 1 pass defense has not played an impressive list of quarterbacks in 2022: Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Jimmy Garoppolo, Carr, Matt Ryan, Justin Herbert, Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Tannehill.
  • Carr only had 188 passing yards against Denver in Week 4 largely due to Josh Jacobs rushing for a career-high 144 yards in a 32-23 win.
  • Carr also had 40 rushing yards himself against Denver, so it was a good day for the Raiders, the only team to score over 20 points on the Broncos this year.
  • Look for Denver to adjust against the run and force Carr to do more.
  • Carr was not having a good year throwing to Renfrow and Waller anyway, so their losses are not that important in 2022 as Davante Adams is still there.

The Prop Pick

Trust and Derek Carr rarely go hand in hand, but if you saw how emotional he got after Sunday’s loss to the Colts in his press conference, then you know this is a good week to bet on him to play well. Throwing for over 340 yards in his last three 3 to Denver alone gives a lot of confidence he can hit 230 in this one.

It’s not like we are betting on him to win the game.

NFL Prop Pick: Derek Carr Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.