The Week 10 slate has some strong matchups for player prop picks such as:
We also have a prediction on Aaron Rodgers trying to stick it to the Cowboys one last time at Lambeau Field.
We have narrowed it down to a handful of player props that you can find at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 09:30 AM EST at Allianz Arena
Kenneth Walker (Seattle Seahawks)
- Over 78.5 Rushing Yards
Seattle’s latest featured back is now the front-runner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Kenneth Walker made his first start for the injured Rashaad Penny in Week 6 and he has averaged 22 carries for 106 rushing yards in the last four games, all Seattle wins.
Walker has rushed for at least 97 yards in three of the four games. Oddly enough, his worst game was 51 yards against the Giants, a defense that ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed.
Not What They Used To Be
But Walker is getting a Tampa Bay defense that is no longer elite against the run. The Bucs still have a lot of good pass-defense metrics, but against the run, they are 23rd in yards and 20th in yards per carry.
Even the Chiefs cranked out 189 yards on the ground against these Buccaneers. Carolina’s D'Onta Foreman had 118 rushing yards a couple of weeks ago.
We know Pete Carroll loves a good running game and he has to be thrilled with what Walker is doing for the offense this year. Look for him to have another good game in Germany for your NFL picks.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Soldier Field
Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears)
- Over/Under 41.5 Receiving Yards
Darnell Mooney’s receiving lines continue to be low even though he is clearly the No. 1 wide receiver in Chicago, and he has gone over 42.5 yards in six straight games. The team recently traded for Chase Claypool from Pittsburgh, and he was a factor against Miami, but Mooney is still the go-to receiver here.
This is also a fantastic matchup as Mooney will take on a Detroit defense he torched for 125 and 123 yards in two games last year. Only one of those games was with Justin Fields as his quarterback, but that was also one of the best passing games for Fields, who had 209 passing yards on 11-of-17 passing.
After Fields set the regular-season record for quarterback rushing yards (178) in a game last week, look for him to take to the air a little more against Detroit’s bottom-ranked defense. Mooney should have no problem going over in yards here.
NFL Prop Pick: Darnell Mooney Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-139) at Bovada
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Acrisure Stadium
Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers)
- Over/Under 0.5 Passes Intercepted
Obviously, Kenny Pickett has to cut down on the interceptions if he wants to be the long-term answer at quarterback for the Steelers. Pickett has already tossed eight picks in five games, which amounts closer to four games, given the number of quarters he's played.
Not all of the picks are his fault. In fact, most were really driven by the situation (Hail Mary or trying to come back in the fourth quarter or down huge in Buffalo) as well as multiple tipped balls.
Looking For the Endzone
That is not to say he is playing well, but the picks should not be the biggest indictment against him. A lack of finishing drives in the end zone would be more fitting.
But for this prop pick, let’s go with him not throwing a pick in a full game for the first time this year after he had a bye week to review what he has done badly so far. It also helps that the Saints have not forced multiple turnovers in a game since Week 1, and they have intercepted two of their opponent’s 283 throws this year.
Corner Marshon Lattimore is usually good for a few picks each season, but he has none this year, and he is likely out again for this game. That should only help Pickett as he tries to get things going with his receivers.
It also should help that T.J. Watt is back on defense, so the game should be within reach and lower scoring. Andy Dalton has never scored more than 21 points against the Steelers in 16 starts. Pickett doesn’t need to press to keep pace with Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts on the road as he did in Pittsburgh’s two blowout losses.
The Steelers should actually win this game, and Pickett avoiding turnovers would be a big boost to make that happen.
NFL Prop Pick: Kenny Pickett Under 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+140) at Bovada
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
- Over/Under 270.5 Passing Yards
If Bailey Zappe (Patriots rookie) can pass for over 300 yards against the Browns, why not Tua Tagovailoa? In the games where he was not impacted by an injury, he had:
- 270 yards
- 469 yards
- 261 yards
- 302 yards
He has gone over 300 yards in consecutive weeks against the Lions and Bears. Not great defenses, but you would say similar things about Cleveland this year.
Chubb the Wrecking Ball
This game also has the potential to be a fun shootout with Nick Chubb chasing the rushing title and the Browns being fairly good at moving the ball and scoring this year despite starting Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Then you have the incredible duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for Tagovailoa to throw to in an offense that utilizes play-action as much as anyone. I’m not sure if Tagovailoa will top 300 yards for the third week in a row, but he should be at least in the 275 range to hit his over again.
This offense has not been great at running the ball, so sticking with the pass and the speed of those wideouts is what is going to keep working for them.
NFL Prop Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 270.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Lambeau Field
Allen Lazard (Green Bay Packers)
- Over/Under 54.5 Receiving Yards
This Over pick is the intersection point of opportunity and hubris. Aaron Rodgers has almost no one else to throw the ball to this week, so he is going to force-feed Allen Lazard, his best receiver, in a game against his former coach (Mike McCarthy) where he is expected to be trailing often.
We are not kidding when we say Lazard is the only real target left:
- Randall Cobb (high ankle sprain) is still out.
- Rookie Romeo Doubs will miss a few weeks with an ankle injury.
- Rookie Christian Watson is always injured and Rodgers barely throws him the ball anyway.
- Sammy Watkins basically made one big catch against the Bears in Week 2 and has failed to develop any chemistry with Rodgers.
- Even running back Aaron Jones, a capable receiver, left last week’s game in Detroit with an injury.
- Last we checked, Davante Adams is still with the Raiders.
Feeling at Home
Lazard has missed some time this year too, but in the seven games he’s played, he’s had at least 55 yards in four of them. The Packers have only played three games at home in Lambeau Field this year and Lazard had 116 and 76 yards in the last two home games.
The Dallas defense is one of the best at keeping passing yards down, but the unit has allowed eight 55-yard receivers this year, including:
- Cooper Kupp (125)
- Mike Evans (71)
- Tee Higgins (71)
- Darnell Mooney (70)
- A.J. Brown (67).
Those are four No. 1 wide receivers and Higgins is basically a 1B to Ja'Marr Chase in Cincinnati.
Rodgers might be petty enough to throw constantly against a great pass defense with few weapons around him if only to stick it to Mike McCarthy. So, we want in on his best receiver going over 54.5 yards.