NFL Week 1 Player Props: Raiders vs. Chargers and Four Other Matchups

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Hunter Renfrow #13 of the Las Vegas Raiders carries the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP.

We have a variety of NFL prop picks for the first weekend of the 2022 season that you can find at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. Feel free to add these to a highly profitable parlay or play the best values as singles.

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium

Raiders' Prop Bet: Hunter Renfrow

  • Over/Under 5.5 Receptions

With all the attention paid towards Davante Adams coming to Las Vegas, the player who might benefit the most from head coach Josh McDaniels’ system is slot receiver Hunter Renfrow. He already shined last year with 103 receptions and a ridiculous catch rate of 80.5%.

The exciting thing for Renfrow is if McDaniels uses him the way the Patriots used Wes Welker and Julian Edelman in the past. It would not be crazy if Renfrow finishes the season with more catches than Adams as it is quarterback Derek Carr’s strength to target slot receivers and tight ends the most.

For this matchup, Renfrow can point to catching at least 6 balls in 11 of 18 games last year. He only had 4 grabs in his last outing against the Chargers, but 2 were touchdowns. He can get open against this and any defense. I like him a lot to have a big impact this weekend in a high-scoring game and to hit his over in receptions.

NFL Pick: Hunter Renfrow Over 5.5 Receptions (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Hunter Renfrow Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium

Colts' Prop Bet: Jonathan Taylor

  • Over/Under 96.5 Rushing Yards

The Colts pulled off a rare feat last season of playing almost a carbon-copy game against a division rival.

  • In Week 6, the Colts beat Houston 31-3.
  • Jonathan Taylor rushed for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns.
  • In Week 13, the Colts beat Houston 31-0.
  • Jonathan Taylor rushed for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns.

How much deja vu was that? Granted, Jonathan Taylor only needed 14 carries for the first matchup and tied his season high with 32 carries in the rematch.

But the point is the Colts dominated Houston on the ground and it is hard to believe the Houston defense got better after retaining defensive coordinator Lovie Smith and promoting him to coach. The time to figure out how he was going to stop Taylor was last year.

The Colts were 9-1 when Taylor rushed for 100 yards and 0-7 when he was under 100 yards. Pretty cut and dry. The Colts should be in a better position with Matt Ryan taking over for Carson Wentz, so Taylor may not need to be that consistently spectacular for the team to win this year. But for a Week 1 matchup, it is hard to believe Taylor won’t break 100 yards in this one to hit his over for the day.

NFL Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 96.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Bovada

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Jonathan Taylor Over 96.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field

49ers' Prop Bet: Elijah Mitchell

  • Over/Under 63.5 Rushing Yards

This is a game where you would expect both quarterbacks, Trey Lance (39.5) and Justin Fields (34.5), to do well in hitting the Overs for their rushing yards. Lance seemed to be given the green light to run in two starts last year, averaging 12 attempts per start. Fields did not have the rushing impact we imagined he would, but he did have his only 100-yard rushing game at home against these 49ers.

But for as enticing as those numbers look, let’s go with more of a sure thing in Elijah Mitchell. When he played Chicago last year as a rookie, he had a career-high 137 rushing yards. That’s more than double his Over/Under in this game of 63.5 yards.

Mitchell missed six games with injury last season, but he hit 64 yards rushing in 8 out of 11 games in the regular season. Maybe the team runs Deebo Samuel less and gives the ball more to Mitchell to start this season, preserving Deebo for the playoffs.

Also, the Bears lost Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks in the front seven and do not look like an imposing defense anymore. Kyle Shanahan’s offense should run wild.

NFL Pick: Elijah Mitchell Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bovada

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Elijah Mitchell Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium

Dolphins' Prop Bet: Jaylen Waddle

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Similar to liking Hunter Renfrow this weekend, let’s take a look at the value Jaylen Waddle gives the Dolphins. Sure, all the hype is going to what Tyreek Hill will do, but Bill Belichick knows more about how to deal with him from battles with Kansas City.

In his first NFL game last year, Waddle faced the Patriots and had 61 receiving yards and a touchdown. Facing the Patriots again in the final game, he was held to 27 yards, but he found the end zone again.

Look for new coach Mike McDaniel to make Waddle his gadget player and move him around in the red zone to score well more than the 6 touchdowns he had as a rookie. He should continue his scoring streak against the Patriots in this one as New England is going to need some adjusting to the Shanahan-style offense that McDaniel should have success with for Miami.

NFL Pick: Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+179) at Bovada

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Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+179)
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Cleveland Browns vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium

Panthers' Prop Bet: Baker Mayfield and Christian McCaffrey

  • Revenge Parlay

Finally, you have to get in some action on the Baker Mayfield revenge game against Cleveland. It also is a return game for star running back Christian McCaffrey, who hopefully will stay healthy this year.

A sportsbook such as Bovada has prepared parlay wagers you can select in their prop builder, and this one, in particular, stands out:

  1. Baker Mayfield: 230+ Passing Yards
  2. Christian McCaffrey: 1+ Touchdowns
  3. Christian McCaffrey: 6+ Receptions
  4. Parlay Odds: +222

There is great value in this parlay pick since you don’t have to worry about the spread or moneyline in a game that has seen the line move dramatically.

Christian McCaffrey 1+ Touchdowns

If anyone is scoring touchdowns for Carolina in this game, it is going to be McCaffrey. For as great as D.J. Moore is, he has only turned 14 of his 301 career catches into touchdowns. McCaffrey should be one of the safest touchdown scorer bets in Week 1.

Christian McCaffrey 6+ Receptions

As for those receptions, McCaffrey caught 9 balls from Sam Darnold in last year’s season opener. The offense is going to use their best player as much as they can while he is healthy. 6 catches should not be a problem.

Baker Mayfield 230+ Passing Yards

Baker could be the problem if he tries too hard in this game, but 230 yards with McCaffrey catching short passes should be more than doable. You know he'll be motivated to play at a high level in this one to show off to the Browns.

If the 2021 Panthers could start a season with Darnold throwing for 279-plus yards in four straight games, then Mayfield should be able to do 230 in this game. Matt Rhule is not allergic to the passing game that much to hide Baker.

I am rolling with Mayfield and McCaffrey in this matchup to drop the Browns to 0-1.

NFL Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+222) at Bovada

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Three-Legged Parlay (+222)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.