Bears vs. Cowboys NFL Week 8 Top Picks: Dak is Back for the Boyz

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Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys scrambles with the ball against the Detroit Lions. Tom Pennington/Getty Images/AFP.

Dak Prescott made his highly anticipated return to the gridiron last week and the Cowboys turned in a winning performance.

Let’s discuss whether or not Dallas’s talented quarterback will take another step forward this week as we review the NFL odds and get on the right side of this one in our NFL picks.

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Chicago Bears vs. Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium

Chicago's Performance

The Bears had dropped their previous three contests and were installed as 9 ½ point road dogs as they traveled to Foxboro, Massachusetts, home of the New England Patriots.

But instead of laying down and taking another loss to sink further into the cellar of the NFC North, the Bears rose to the occasion and stunned all but their most ardent fans with a 33-14 demolition of the Patriots.

Justin Fields was once again unimpressive in putting up any serious passing numbers, tallying just 179 yards with one touchdown pass and one interception.

However, he did make it happen with his feet, accounting for 82 of the 243 rushing yards the Bears chewed up against a porous Patriots’ run-stop unit.

It was the first road win of the season for the Bears and their highest-scoring effort to date. Chicago’s defense had an impressive performance with three interceptions and held the Patriots' vaunted rushing attack to just 70 yards.

Dallas's D Shines in Dak’s Debut

Dak Prescott stole the headlines prior to his return against the Lions last week, but when the rubber hit the road, it was the defense that steered the team to victory.

The Cowboys' pass rush registered five sacks of Detroit’s beleaguered quarterback, Jared Goff, and also forced him into two interceptions in addition to two of the Lions’ three fumbles

Dallas’s second-round pick, linebacker, and Ole Miss product Sam Williams has been a force in his rookie campaign and recorded the first two sacks of his career last week.

"Everywhere I've been I broke the record, JUCO, high school, Ole Miss, now I'm trying to do it here," Williams said. "Trying to leave my name on something positive."

Prescott was more of a game manager rather than a game-changer in his return, connecting on 19-of-25 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown.

He was composed in the pocket but let the talented tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Troy Pollard handle the heavy lifting, both of whom combined for 140 rushing yards, while Elliott broke the plane of the end zone on two occasions.

Total Trends

  • Under is 6-0 in the Cowboys’ last 6 home games.
  • Under is 6-1-1 in the Cowboys’ last 8 games overall.
  • Under is 10-2-1 in the Cowboys’ last 13 games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 10-2-1 in the Cowboys’ last 13 games following a straight-up win.
  • Under is 5-1-1 in the Cowboys’ last 7 vs. NFC.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Cowboys’ last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 11-3 in the Bears’ last 14 games in October.
  • Under is 21-6 in the Bears’ last 27 games following an ATS win.

Bears vs. Cowboys Breakdown

The Bears’ running attack was too much for the Patriots last week and you can bet they will try to bulldoze their way over the Cowboys’ run-stop unit this week.

It’s just what they do because their passing game is non-existent. It’s not often we see a team that is so one-dimensional but that’s who the Bears are this season, ranked No. 1 in rushing averaging 181 yards per game, yet, dead last in passing generating only 126.3 yards per game.

When was the last time you saw a team in this modern-day, pass-happy NFL that averaged more yards on the ground than through the air? It’s unusual, to say the least, but the triumvirate of Justin Fields, David Montgomery, and Khalil Herbert keep the wheels turning on the ground and things should be no different against Dallas this week.

Dallas's Prediction

Although the Cowboys own the No. 6-ranked pass defense, their ground defense checks in at No. 20, allowing 120.1 yards per contest. It’s not a leap to envision the Bears moving the chains and chewing up the clock throughout the afternoon. And this is just one reason why I believe this will be a low-scoring affair.

As for the Dallas offense, I cautioned against expectations being too great for Dak Prescott in his return last week and it turns out he was perfectly serviceable in passing for 207 yards and a touchdown, but not the lightning rod many expected the moment he came off of the IR.

The Pick

I suspect we will see more of this rendition of Dak Prescott this week because I highly doubt his thumb is completely healed.

Top-rated sportsbooks are expecting this one to be a blowout but I see the Bears keeping this within the margins, especially since Dallas could be looking ahead to a date at Lambeau Field against the Packers the following week.

Let’s grab the generous head start the oddsmakers are giving us and cash a ticket on Chicago.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 23 - Bears 16

NFL Pick: Bears +10 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Bears +10 ½ (-108)
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NFL Pick: Under 42 ½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 42 ½ (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.