49ers vs. Cardinals Week 11 MNF Best Player Props: Trust Jimmy Garoppolo in Mexico?

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Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers looks to pass during against the Los Angeles Chargers during their Week 10 game at Levi's Stadium on November 13, 2022. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

The San Francisco 49ers (5-4) travel to Mexico City to face Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals (4-6) on what could be a huge night for the team with the best odds to win the NFC West division. With the Seahawks (6-4) on a bye week, the 49ers can move into first place with a win here on the strength of a head-to-head win over the Seahawks.

A San Francisco win would also help coach Kyle Shanahan, who is 48-48 including the playoffs, to a winning record for the first time in the NFL. He is 0-5 in his previous attempts to get above .500 and we just saw last Monday with the Eagles losing at home to Washington how wild division games can be.

But the Cardinals have some major quarterback health issues that make prop picks tricky and the game hard to win against an elite defense. The 49ers are an 8-point road favorite in a game with a total of 43.5 points at many top-rated sportsbooks.

We look at some prop picks for this NFC West matchup

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Monday, November 21, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Estadio Azteca

Quarterback Props

Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)

  • Over/Under 245.5 Passing Yards
  • Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Garoppolo has missed most of the games against the Cardinals since 2017, but in the four times he played them with San Francisco, he passed for at least 259 yards and multiple touchdowns every time. Three times he was over 300 yards, including last year’s game with 326 yards despite a loss.

This has been a very good opponent for Garoppolo, and this year’s version of the Arizona defense is nothing special. The Cardinals are allowing quarterbacks to complete 68.5% of their passes for 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The pass rush gets decent pressure (ranked No. 8 at Pro Football Reference), but the Cardinals are one of the worst at turning pressures into sacks as they rank 27th in sack rate.

In the Same Ballpark

Garoppolo has passed for at least 235 yards in 6-of-7 starts this season, so he is usually going to be in the ballpark of this line. He also had four straight games with multiple touchdowns before throwing zero against the Chargers last week.

Let’s trust the offense to be ready for a divisional opponent that is struggling and for Garoppolo to hit his overs in yards and touchdown passes as he plays with arguably the most talented offensive cast in the NFL. 

NFL Pick: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

NFL Pick: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120) at Bovada

Running Back Props

James Conner (Cardinals)

  • Over/Under 47.5 Rushing Yards
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

The last time these teams played, Colt McCoy was Arizona’s quarterback, and James Conner was the star of the show with three total touchdowns. He rushed for 96 yards and caught five balls for 77 yards and another score.

This season has not gone as well for the often-injured Conner, but McCoy at quarterback is not a detriment to him producing. Last week against the Rams, he had 69 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

With the team moving Eno Benjamin out of town for some reason, Conner should have the majority of touches again out of the backfield. The 49ers are tough against the run, but if someone in this Arizona offense is going to produce 50 yards and a touchdown for your NFL picks, it would be Conner. 

NFL Pick: James Conner Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada

NFL Pick: James Conner Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115) at Bovada

Christian McCaffrey (49ers)

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

The 49ers are like that spoiled rich kid with so many toys that he doesn’t know what to do with all of them. Christian McCaffrey is a nice addition to this offense, but we still saw Elijah Mitchell get 18 carries in his first game back last week to 14 for McCaffrey. The run also produced better results with Mitchell as he gained 89 yards to CMC’s 38.

But with the way McCaffrey catches passes and seems to be getting the goal line touches, we think the best value pick in this one is for McCaffrey to score a touchdown for the third game in a row rather than hit any overs in yardage.

NFL Pick: Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-143) at Bovada

Receiver Props

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers)

  • Over/Under 55.5 Receiving Yards

From the outhouse to the penthouse, Brandon Aiyuk is quietly taking over as the No. 1 receiver on a team with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. 

Some of this is the advantage of Aiyuk not missing any games while Kittle (two) and Samuel (one) both have, but Aiyuk definitely has a good chemistry with Garoppolo. The two should have connected on a touchdown last week, but Aiyuk dropped the ball.

It was still Aiyuk’s fourth consecutive game with over 80 receiving yards. He leads the team in: 

  • Targets (62)
  • Catches (44)
  • Receiving yards (567)
  • Touchdowns (four)

Aiyuk has gone over 55.5 receiving yards in 6-of-9 games this season. He had 89 yards and a touchdown in his last meeting with the Cardinals. He is a reliable weapon and maybe even the most trusted receiver for Garoppolo in this offense. 

NFL Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

Longshot Touchdown Scorers

We already picked the running backs McCaffrey and Conner as touchdown scorers in this game, but here is a longshot choice for each team as well:

Jauan Jennings (WR, 49ers)

He never has to do much as the fifth receiving option on the team with McCaffrey in town, but Jauan Jennings usually flashes at least once a game. He is hard to tackle in the way all the 49ers’ best receivers are.

Last season, Jennings caught five touchdowns on only 24 total receptions. This year, he has 18 catches and has yet to find the end zone. After he caught four balls for 40 yards last week, at the current NFL odds maybe he is worth a shot in this one to break that touchdown drought with the defense having so many other weapons to defend. 

NFL Pick: Jauan Jennings Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+370) at Bovada

Trey McBride (TE, Cardinals)

With the Cardinals losing tight end Zach Ertz for the year with a knee injury, Trey McBride should be the next man up. He is a second-round rookie out of Colorado State where he managed to catch one touchdown as a senior despite 90 catches and 1,121 receiving yards.

That doesn’t give him the brightest prospects for being a weapon in the red zone, but the Cardinals are down some weapons. McBride played 91% of the snaps with Ertz going down in the first quarter last week, so hopefully the opportunities will be there for him.

NFL Pick: Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+340) at Bovada

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.