2023 Super Bowl Odds Update: It’s Still the Bills

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The Vince Lombardi Trophy is seen ahead of Super Bowl LVI between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals. (Photo by Frederic J. Brown / AFP)

The NFL is full of surprises. At this time last year, the Arizona Cardinals were the best team in the league at 8-1. The Tennessee Titans led the entire AFC at 7-1. Did those two teams meet at Super Bowl LVI? Heck no. They didn’t even make it to the Conference Championships.

Instead, it was the 7-2 Los Angeles Rams (who beat Arizona in the Wild Card Round) and 5-4 Cincinnati Bengals (who beat Tennessee in the Divisional Round) playing in the Big Game. These things happen in the NFL.

Having said that, can you imagine the 7-1 Minnesota Vikings and 5-4 New England Patriots ending up facing each other at Super Bowl LVII? It’s probably not going to happen. As we go to press, neither team is anywhere close to the top tier of favorites on the NFL odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review):

  • Buffalo +325
  • Philadelphia +525
  • Kansas City +575

These three teams have earned their place atop the list. The Bills (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) have been No. 1 since the preseason, and they’ve been impressive enough to hold onto pole position for the Big Game – but at this price, they’re absolutely the wrong team for your NFL picks.

Philly Special

As a general rule, you’re not going to find much value betting the favorites on the NFL futures market. This year is no exception. FiveThirtyEight has the same three teams ahead of the pack on their Super Bowl LVII projections heading into Week 10, but in a different order:

  • Philadelphia 19%
  • Buffalo 18%
  • Kansas City 17%

The Eagles (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) are this year’s breakout team – not unlike Arizona last year. It’s possible they suffer the same fate, as they try to escape a tough NFC East division unscathed. But that 19% projection translates to +426 when you run it through the unshakeable BMR’s Odds Converter. That makes Philly well worth betting at +525.

Kansas City (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) also looks pretty good at 17%. That works out to +488, so of course, you’d bet on the former champs at +575.

The Bills? Not so much. Their 18% is the equivalent of +456, which means you’d be paying a premium to bet them at +325.

Data Does Dallas

As well as these three teams have performed, chances are none of them will win Super Bowl LVII. The NFL as a league is driven towards parity, with a hard salary cap and the worst teams receiving the highest draft picks. You’ll usually find your viable Super Bowl contenders further down the odds list – including the Dallas Cowboys (6-2 SU and ATS), who are available at +1400 as we go to press.

That’s a bargain and a half. FiveThirtyEight gives Dallas an 11% chance of winning Super Bowl LVII; that implied probability is equal to +809 on the moneyline. Of course, we want to buy them at +1400.

It’s not just the projections, either. According to the Week 10 DVOA numbers at Football Outsiders, the Cowboys rank third overall in the league behind Philadelphia and Buffalo. Dallas even ranks No. 1 in Estimated Wins at 7.2, just ahead of Philly at 7.1. Impressive.

Fading Minnesota

Then you have the Vikings (3-4-1 ATS), the No. 5 team on the FiveThirtyEight projections at 7%. They’re a mediocre team at No. 18 in DVOA that’s taken advantage of the soft NFC North, where they’ve already built a four-game lead over 3-6 Green Bay and Chicago, giving Minnesota a projected 98% chance of winning the division title.

That relatively clear path to the playoffs is fantastic for the Vikings, but it doesn’t cover up their so-so performance in all aspects of the game.

Maybe they’re a bit more like last year’s Bengals than the Rams in that aspect; Cincinnati finished the 2021 campaign at No. 17 in DVOA, with similar issues on both sides of the ball – although the Bengals had better special teams than what Minnesota has now.

Best Picks to Make Right Now

Looking even further down the list, the aforementioned Titans (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) seem to be worth a Super Bowl flier at +4000, given their projected 4% chance of victory (+2400 equivalent). But that’s about it as far as betting value is concerned. So which of these teams should you pick?

All of them. Betting one unit each on a four-team package of Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas and Tennessee would guarantee you a profit if any of them win. It might be even smarter to fine-tune the bet sizes for each team to reflect their profit margins, but we’ll leave that up to you. Math is hard.

NFL Pick: Philadelphia (+525) at Bovada

NFL Pick: Kansas City (+575) at Bovada

NFL Pick: Dallas (+1400) at Bovada

NFL Pick: Tennessee (+4000) at Bovada

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.