NFL Futures Betting

Key Facts

• The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently dominated the AFC West, with the last time another team winning the division dating back to 2015.
• Head coach Andy Reid’s innovative game plans and the talented pieces provided to him have contributed to the Chiefs’ success, making them a formidable force in big games.
• The lack of continuity and ongoing struggles of other AFC West franchises, such as San Diego, Denver, and Las Vegas, further solidify the Chiefs’ position as the clear favorite to win the division.

Like death and taxes, the Kansas City Chiefs have a stranglehold on the AFC West. Unless Patrick Mahomes is injured and cannot play or every other Chiefs starter is injured, Kansas City is set to win another AFC West crown

The Last Time Someone Else Won the AFC West?

To put this question in proper context, the last time someone other than the red-clad Chiefs won was when – Star Wars: The Force Awakens movie came out and that was the Denver Broncos in 2015.

This stretch is made all the more remarkable by the fact Andy Reid and the front office have rebuilt this squad on the run and last year’s K.C. crew was among the youngest teams in the league.

Reid and Mahomes Make It Work

Though Reid has always been a brilliant offensive coach, his mindset seemed to change once he got to Kansas City after all the success he enjoyed in Philadelphia.

He was never known for winning big games in Philly and was often too conservative. That’s not the case with the Chiefs as he weekly has the most innovative game plans and is supplied the pieces to make them work.

Bumbling AFC West Franchises

If you look at San Diego, Denver, and Las Vegas, one is hard-pressed to see the continuity in any of those teams as annually they are trying to find the right coach and personnel and come up short in both facets.

This is the easiest choice of all the divisions to pick a winner, much like when Tom Brady and Bill Belichick dominated the AFC East for years.

The Pick

Chiefs to Win AFC West -150 at BetOnline

Does anyone know what is going on with this wild 2023 NFL draft? At this rate, Hendon Hooker will be the No. 1 pick. The latest rumor is Houston will not take a quarterback at No. 2. Either way, it does not seem that the Texans and Colts will come out of this draft with a quarterback who is ready to be a playoff starter in the 2023 season.

That leaves it down to Jacksonville and Tennessee for the second year in a row. The Titans collapsed after a 7-3 start with seven straight losses, including a Week 18 loss to Jacksonville that they may have won if Ryan Tannehill was healthy.

But things have been declining with the Tannehill and Derrick Henry-led offense, and the Jaguars have the best quarterback situation with Trevor Lawrence. They even added to his weapons with the Calvin Ridley trade at wide receiver to go along with Christian Kirk, who played very well.

The Jaguars had three comeback wins of 17-plus points after November last year after having one such game in franchise history. This might scream regression to the mean after the team went from 2-6 to 9-8, but they are also young, still developing, and beat almost everyone besides the Chiefs down the stretch. Remember, Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl in his second season with the Eagles in 2017.

This is the team to beat in the AFC South for now until the other teams can sort out the quarterback position.

The Pick

AFC South Winner – Jacksonville Jaguars (-150) at Bovada

With Alabama quarterback Bryce Young moving to -1500 odds at some sportsbooks for the No. 1 pick, it is looking like he will be on the Carolina Panthers with new coach Frank Reich.

This was the worst division in football, but it lost Tom Brady, it gained Derek Carr, and it still has the Atlanta Falcons, a franchise known for inventing new ways to lose. The Panthers were a game away from winning the division last year, but they should be upgrading at coach with Reich, who knows how to cater the offense to any style of a quarterback after his work in Indianapolis.

Young also is personally my top quarterback prospect in this class. He looks like someone who could have the mobility and creative improvising skills of a young Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson. Someone who will have a pass-first mentality like those players rather than a run-first one like Michael Vick or Justin Fields.

The Panthers did trade away D.J. Moore to Chicago to help get the No. 1 pick, but there is something to build around here with Young.

The Panthers also have a solid foundation for running the ball, an offensive line that is not terrible, a capable defense, and could use some positive regression after losing 50 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter since 2018. This team may only need to go 9-8 to win this division, and the likely selection of Young makes this an ideal pick for our best futures bet.

The Pick

NFC South Winner – Carolina Panthers (+300) at BetOnline

The biggest truth we know about the NFL MVP award is that it usually goes to a quarterback with great stats on a high-seeded team. Of the 33 times a quarterback went on to win MVP since 1981, we observed:

• 25-of-33 (75.8%) played for a No. 1 seed.
• 29-of-33 (87.9%) were on a team with 12-plus wins.
• 29-of-33 (87.9%) ranked in the top three in passing value (DYAR) at Football Outsiders.

You also need a compelling narrative to put the finishing touches on your MVP case. Last year, Patrick Mahomes won MVP because he had the Chiefs with the top seed and No. 1 offense despite losing Tyreek Hill. But voters may be fatigued by Mahomes’ greatness.

Not that Aaron Rodgers, a four-time MVP, is a breath of fresh air, but he is if he can play at a high level with the Jets, a franchise known for awful quarterbacks. If the Jets beat out favored Buffalo to win the AFC East and Rodgers has stats on par with his 2020-21 seasons, then he should be a strong MVP choice.

No quarterback has won MVP in his first season with a team since Earl Morrall (1968 Colts) but Rodgers has the talent around him to do it after the Jets crushed their 2022 draft by adding Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. There could be value in betting on him now before the trade to the Jets is official as he will likely see an odds boost when that goes official.

The Pick

2023 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (+1500) at Bovada

Key Facts

• Hurts finished No. 2 in MVP voting and will have most of his offensive teammates from last year returning.
• The Eagles led the NFL with 70 sacks and drafted more pass-rushing talent in the first round with Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith from Georgia.

Stop the NFC East Parity

No one has been able to repeat as NFC East champions since the Eagles had a 4-year run in 2001-04. The Eagles have a great shot to do that after cruising to an 8-0 start last year.

The main competition remains Dallas in the division, and the teams split their series with the winner beating the other’s backup quarterback. But the Eagles had a more dynamic offense and a defense that did not rely as much on takeaways as Dallas.

Talent Over Coaches

The Eagles lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs, but Nick Sirianni has reloaded his staff with trustworthy assistants. They are also retaining most of the talent that got them to the Super Bowl last year. They have enough veterans and developed players on both sides of the ball to not skip a beat without those coordinators.

Trench Warfare

Few teams have done as well as the Eagles in building the trenches on both sides of the ball. They continue to invest in their lines by adding two talented pass rushers from Georgia. They had one of the best offensive lines last year, and the veteran core is intact with Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce.

The Pick

Philadelphia Eagles NFC East Winner +100 at Bovada

Key Facts

• Bengals continue to upgrade roster, specifically addressing the offensive line, which improves pass protection for Joe Burrow and enhances the running game.
• Cincinnati’s defense is steadily improving, ranking 6th in fewest points allowed last season, and efforts to strengthen the pass rush can significantly impact their performance.
• Joe Burrow’s composure and leadership have proven effective, and the team has already defeated strong opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship

The Cincinnati Bengals went to the Super Bowl two years ago and to two straight AFC title games. They could very well be headed back this upcoming season. Here is why.

Bengals Continue to Upgrade Roster

Two years ago, Cincinnati got to the Super Bowl not because of their offensive line, it was in spite of it. Last year they drafted players and made upgrades and while it was better in 2022, there is still room for improvement.

Signing Orlando Brown Jr. gives them that needed left tackle in pass protection for Joe Burrow and which will make the offensive line better. Ultimately, head coach Zac Taylor wants to run the ball with greater efficiency, which can make passing offense more lethal and that only happens with a better offensive line.

Cincinnati used most of its draft capital on defense and that will only help.

More Dominate Defense

With each passing season, the Bengals are improving on defense. Last season they were 6^th in fewest points allowed at 20.6 points a game. While coach Taylor liked the more physical style, Cincy was only 16^th in yards allowed. Part of the problem with their defense was ranking 29^th in sacks and it’s not lost on Taylor and his defensive staff Kansas City and Philadelphia were in last year’s Super Bowl and were 1^st and 2^nd in sacks.

That is why they went after playmakers DE Myles Murphy, looking to make negative plays. If the Bengals can upgrade the defense where it is at least Top 10 in the fewest yards allowed and have more sacks, they have something with their offense.

Joe Cool Is the Man

Joe Burrow is unflappable and his teammates feed off his confidence. If Cincinnati continues to improve, they’ve already beaten Kansas City once in an AFC championship contest. If the Bengals could get the Chiefs at their place, that might set them up to win a Super Bowl.

The Pick

Bengals to Win Super Bowl +1000 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• The potential return of quarterback Brock Purdy and the improved throwing motion of Trey Lance provide optimism for the 49ers’ offense, which has the capability to excel in both the running and passing game.
• Despite a subpar performance in the NFC title game, San Francisco’s defense was the top-ranked unit in total defense and fewest points allowed. 
• Expectations are high for another strong defensive showing, making the 49ers a strong contender to win the NFC and reach the Super Bowl.

A QB That Plays 18 Games

One of these years, San Francisco will have a quarterback that can play an entire season. If that happened, they might just win a Super Bowl, or at least return to the big game.

Philadelphia was a juggernaut last year and even if Brock Purdy had not gotten hurt, it seemed the Eagles would have beaten the 49ers with how they pushed them around on defense.

Nonetheless, San Francisco’s window of opportunity has to start diminishing soon, and never having a healthy quarterback is wasting this opportunity with one of the best rosters in the NFL.

Proof In the Purdy?

Purdy is expected back by training camp and Trey Lance has worked with QB gurus to improve his throwing motion. Coach Kyle Shanahan remarked this spring in a private setting how much better and confident Lance is throwing the pigskin.

Whomever it is for San Francisco, given their offense and the potential it has running and throwing, a signal caller who played like Purdy did down the stretch gives the Niners a shot at playing in another Super Bowl out of the NFC.

Defense Not a Concern

Forgive San Francisco’s performance in the NFC title tilt. When Purdy went, so did the emotional juice from the 49ers. This was the top club in total defense that was also first in fewest points allowed. Expect another Top 5 year in both categories from this squad as they take the next step and reach the Super Bowl as NFC champs.

The Pick

49ers to Win NFC +400 at BetOnline