A short while after Wales stunned Europe with a superb run in Euro 2016, we wrote that it would probably prove to be a peak that players and management would struggle to scale again. When the Welsh host Serbia at home on Saturday it appears they are beginning to struggle to get a foothold.
After opening their World Cup qualification campaign with a comfortable victory over Moldova (4-0 for the record), they have earned a respectable 2-2 draw with Austria and a not-so-respectable 1-1 draw at home to Georgia.
One of the obscure by-products of success is that stay with me, it becomes much harder to be successful. Whatever team sport you’re talking about, the outlier which suddenly takes everyone by surprise is researched in forensic detail. In other words, they earn respect so people take them more seriously.
It could be that Wales are struggling to get over the hump in that regard. Things just got a little tougher. It could be that any game now they will vault it with ease. The problem is that Serbia are a hurdle which others have slammed straight into and fallen flat on their face.
There is an interesting symmetry at play here. Four years ago Chris Coleman and Wales suffered one of their darkest moments. And it came against Serbia when they were mauled 6-1. They also conceded three more in the return leg. As a result, the Serbians will be confident.
The visitors have lost one (a bizarre and out of character 3-0 reverse to Qatar of all teams) of their last eight. They are disciplined (a polite way of saying they stick everyone behind the ball) and they fight for their lives.
So Wales are hardly a gimme at 2.44 (188Bet). Serbia are 3.3 (Sportingbet, Paddy Power) and the stalemate is 3.3 (Power).
We happen to like the draw at the odds but it is worth exploring other options with the belief that this is not going to be an open, free flowing game. Under 1.5 goals comes in at 3.04 (Marathon). But if that floats your boat then a 1-0 home win should be snaffled at 7.5 (BetVictor).
Wales have won just one of their last four home games so Serbia with a 0.25 headstart on the Asian handicap will also appeal at 1.85 (Bet365).
Aaron Ramsey returns to Wales after injury and his box-to-box prowess was missed against Georgia. He is 10 (at both of this green listed bookmakers: BetVictor, Paddy Power) for the first goal and Gareth Bale is 5.25 on the same market.
On that point, is that value? How often does Bale actually net first for Wales? In the last ten Wales games, he’s managed it three times. At the odds, Bale has an implied probability of 19 per cent. At his record in the last ten, he should be around 3.33.
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