Tottenham vs West Brom
Now that the distraction of the FA Cup is out of the way (for the season in West Brom’s case) it’s back to the bread and butter of the league and Tottenham welcome West Brom to White Hart Lane for what is likely to be the very last time.
It’s not been officially confirmed yet but Spurs are unlikely to be back here next season. Wembley is lined up for them to act as their home ground for next season and if Spurs Champions League form is anything to go by, that might not be an easy transition.
West Brom have been in good form in the league recently and despite their loss against Derby in the FA Cup they will prove a real test for Tottenham here. The two sides drew 1:1 (with Craig Dawson scoring for both sides) earlier in the season and that was the third consecutive 1:1 draw that these two have played out over the last season and a half. West Brom held their own in that match against a side that look like they will be seriously challenging for a top four spot once again. In fact West Brom have been a much-improved side this season and have amassed more points, scored more goals and conceded less than in the equivalent games last season.
Spurs have improved but the differences are not as marked. They’ve picked up 3 more points, scored 1 less and conceded 2 less in this season’s matches compared to the same games last season. Their win and clean sheet against Chelsea did mean they now have the best defence in the league though and they will be relying on that as they attempt to beat West Brom on Saturday lunchtime.
From a betting point of view the odds on the Match Odds market seem about right really on our green listed sportsbooks. Spurs are one of the in-form sides in the Premier League and you can understand the odds of 1.36 being offered by William Hill and some other bookies. Obviously at 1.36 it’s hard to justify making a bet and I certainly wouldn’t try to claim “value” as an incentive as there is none.
If you are looking for value then the draw option is where you should be looking. That’s not where I’m going to be betting though even if the odds are very tempting.
Instead I’m looking at the Over/Under 2.5 goals market. Both of these sides have lurched between goal happy and goal hungry at times this season so I expected to see quite similar odds on the two sides of this market. Instead there is a marked difference with the Under being given the much more tempting odds of 2.11 (SBOBet) against the 1.8 offered by the same bookie.
I’m taking the bookie on and going for the Under in this one. Spurs haven’t been particularly threatening in games against sides that don’t want to take them on. I highly doubt West Brom are going to open up and try to play attacking football so this game could be low on goals.
The football fan in me hopes I’m wrong but the bettor inside knows this is likely to be the right call.
Calculators
