Southampton have seen some mixed luck recently. They dominated their match against Inter Milan in the Europa League and then were perhaps a touch lucky to pick up a draw against Manchester City at the weekend. This match against Chelsea will be another tough game for them and that is then followed by another match against Inter Milan (at home this time) so things aren’t getting any easier for them.
Chelsea, of course, are on a run of their own and it’s a lot more positive with 3 league wins in a row since they lost against Arsenal. I’m still not sold on Conte and don’t think his micro-management is going to work long term with the Chelsea players but right now they seem to be buying into it and they are improving as the season progresses.
If Chelsea are to be successful in games like this and others, then it will come down to being organized, well drilled and respecting the game plan put in place by their coach. It’s that last part that let them down last season and hopefully they won’t make the same mistake.
I’ve been impressed by Southampton this season. They were good in 2015/16 under Ronald Koeman but this time out they seem to be more attacking and willing to take a risk. Sometimes that will blow up in your face but sometimes it will pay off. Their defence is still pretty solid (the joint second best in the league overall) and although their attack is still a little “average”, it’s improved on last season.
Performances at St. Mary’s Stadium are better than the results the travelling fans have had to see and if Chelsea want to pick up a win they will be the first visiting side to come away with 3 points so far this season.
Chelsea have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their 4 away matches and their best performances seem to have been at Stamford Bridge so I’m taking a risk backing the away side to win this one. With Eden Hazard getting back to his best Southampton will have their work cut out and with the leagues top goal scorer (Diego Costa) in the away ranks as well, that risk does look a bit more calculated.
Fortunately, the odds at our green-listed bookmakers do indicate a certain amount of value, certainly based on results over the last few seasons. Chelsea’s form is good as well with 3 wins out of their last 5 matches and their recent away form has been better than Southampton’s home form.
I’m not going to say that taking the 2.39 on offer with Pinnacle is a “gimme” in any way (this is betting after all) but I feel it’s worth the risk so I’m happy to place my money and take my chance.
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