International sport is cut-throat. First place is everything. Only losers make excuses. Etcetera. Still, it would take a cold-hearted sports freak not to feel a little sorry for Bangladesh as they prepare for the second Test against South Africa on Friday in Bloemfontein.
The poor Bangladeshis are in line for a personal and collective hell. Beaten by a massive 333 runs in the first Test in Potchefstroom, the ‘contest’ appears to be nothing more than organized bullying. If it was a boxing match it would have been stopped…and any other one-sided sporting clichés you care to mention.
Still, it is somewhat amazing that South Africa are not shorter – the sort of price one would ordinarily need a really fancy microscope for. Look, we’re not calling 1.2 value but we thought they would be at least -10000 for this one. There is not even a poor weather forecast which has had the layers exercising caution. For the record, Bangladesh are 15 (Bet365).
Don’t worry, we’re not about to make a case for them as a wager. That, frankly, is impossible chiefly because they have been shorn of their two best batsmen.
Shakib-al-Hasan and Tamim Iqbal are quality performers. Bangladesh doesn\’t have many of those, which is why they are routinely kicked from pillar to post in series away from home. So when one is absent, they struggle. Both? Pass the smelling salts.
Shakib and Tamim have scored the bulk of Bangladesh’s runs against the top eight nations in the last three years. But the former was never selected because he needs a rest and the latter has just gone down with a thigh injury.
Bangladesh are not value but we can find an edge because they are weakened so. With Shakib and Tamim missing the place to look is the first-innings top Bangladesh runscorer market, largely because some firms are still including Tamim.
If we filter Bangladesh’s run-getters without these two in the last three years against the top opposition, the most consistent performer is Mushfiqur Rahim. And by some distance, to boot.
Mushfiqur has 972 runs in 14 Tests – which is very hot on the heels of the two big guns, actually – with an average of 42. This is almost ten runs superior to his nearest team-mate, Imrul Kayes. That may not sound a lot but in ‘average’ terms it is a hefty margin.
It is true that Mushfiqur is the second favourite behind Tamim at 5 (William Hill, Betfred, Black Type) but we know he has to be the bet by dint of the layers, for whatever reason, being slow to take down Tamim’s odds. We also know he is value with the numbers crunched. So pile on.
Calculators
