The key games this weekend are as follows: All prices are from Ladbrokes.
Wales v New Zealand 5.15pm
Warren Gatland made 14 changes to the side that played Georgia last weekend and his side played so poorly because in the past they\’ve been able to play as individuals and get wins on the back of stellar performances from their star players. Wales limped over the line and won 13-6
A year after Ireland defeated New Zealand a near full strength All Blacks side nearly lost to Scotland. The gap is clearly closing between New Zealand and the rest, albeit this Al Black team has rebuilding characteristics two years before a world cup. New Zealand won in Scotland because they finished most of the opportunities they created and this remains a major strength, alongside a strong scrum.
Odds for this game see Wales 17/2 underdogs and +17 on the handicap. Wales are struggling to produce a consistent pattern of play and open sides up, New Zealand will be stung by last weekend and will win, probably covering +17 which unfortunately is a quote pitched quite high.
Scotland v Australia 2.30pm
Scotland came agonisingly close to a first victory over world champions New Zealand but just fell short losing 22-17 in dramatic style at Murrayfield. Scotland are getting close under their new head coach and now need a “signature” result to signal that their revival is complete. England completed a 30-6 demolition of Australia in wet conditions at Twickenham in a game full of controversy and drama.
To even be close to New Zealand, you\’ve got to be at your very best and on Saturday, Scotland were and made New Zealand look human on a number of occasions.
The difference between victory and defeat was that this New Zealand side has so much inner belief. Without any arrogance, they go out expecting to beat anybody and Scotland are rarely in that position. They\’re rarely favourites to win a game.
The difficult part for Scotland this weekend will be getting back up to the level of intensity they reached against New Zealand.
Australia were impressive against Wales then were left to reflect on a performance against England in which they were unfortunate to be behind in after 71 minutes but ended in a record defeat. They have a weakness in that they have always liked the ball in hand, but sides have prospered against them by kicking in behind and forcing errors in their own half. In bad weather especially this has been a profitable tactic.
Australia are favourites here at 8/15 and I do expect them to rebound and win in what could be a high scoring game. Scotland are 6/4 and +4 on the handicap but it is Australia -4 at 10/11 for me
England v Samoa 3pm
Unbeaten in their first year under Eddie Jones, they have lost only against Ireland in 2017 without, producing an entirely compelling performance. Jones will not mind, counting down as he is to the 2019 World Cup; he is completing a jigsaw puzzle, adding pieces each game.
England got the better of the decisions from the match officials against Australia but they played the smarter rugby. England not only had a good, solid defence but conditions made the ball slippery. Jones\’ side played the conditions well. George Ford, Owen Farrell and Ben Youngs all kicked well and Danny Care was exceptional when he came on. England simply made the most of the opportunities they had.
Samoa lost 44-38 in Scotland when rallying from a deep deficit then lost 17-13in Romania last weekend
The disparity in resources and ability should make this a one-sided game. Samoa are
25/1 underdogs and are a whopping +33 on the handicap at green-listed bookmakers. I am not rushing to have a bet here but England could easily win by 50 or more points.
Ireland v Argentina 5.15pm
Joe Schmidt\’s side scraped past Fiji 23-20 in Dublin for their second victory of the winter last weekend. Ireland, with a much rotated team, started off like a train in the first half but then errors came in unhelpful conditions. It will be back to the first choice side here.
Argentina were disappointing against England then won 31-15 against Italy in Rome
Argentina are 11/2 and 15 point underdogs here and I see Ireland covering unless the weather is bad.
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