In the last six autumn International series, the southern hemisphere sides have won 40 Tests and lost 11 matches and the monthly long series of matches began last weekend and continues all through November
Conventional wisdom, over and above the general and consistent superiority of the Southern Hemisphere sides themselves over the Six Nations teams is that the timing of the Autumn Internationals favours the Rugby championship teams, who come into the games battle hardened towards the end of their season and after a series of tough games (for all bar New Zealanders, losing to the All Blacks). Meanwhile, these are the first Internationals of a new-ish season for the Northern sides. For some, notably Welsh players playing for teams not involved in the European champions cup, they’ve had no top level rugby since the summer
Given the terribly below par performance of Wales last weekend, conceding 5 tries and losing to Australia 32-8, the conventional wisdom might well have been seen as having some traction. Indeed the Wales interim coach Rob Howley implied as much in interviews after the match. Over and above this though the tactical approach looked disjointed (possibly coinciding with the absence of coach Warren Gatland nine months out from the Lions tour) and with their key players Sam Warburton, Alun Wyn-Jones and Talupe Faletau all out injured a small pack won no ball and showed little pace around the pitch. Normally Welsh teams can be relied upon to defend well but here too Wales were found wanting whilst in attack we were once again promised a more expansive approach which the Welsh did not deliver.
The “conventional wisdom” was well and truly torpedoed only a few hours later when Ireland produced a heroic performance to beat New Zealand 40-29 in Chicago, ending the All Blacks\’ record 18-match winning streak and recording its first victory over the world champions in 29 Tests spanning 111 years. They were 16/1 outsiders pre-game so this was a huge shock result
The Irish, inspired by the death of their former forward Anthony Foley last month, held off an All Blacks fightback after leading 25-8 at half-time and edged the try count five-four at Soldier Field to seal a famous win showing huge. physicality at the breakdown, an influential set piece and accurate decision-making from the peerless Johnny Sexton
Ireland, whose best result in 28 previous games against New Zealand was a 10-10 draw in 1973, had come close to ending the drought in Dublin in 2013, conceding a converted try at the death that allowed the All Blacks to win 24-22.The teams meet again in Dublin in a fortnight after New Zealand visit Italy and Ireland host Canada this weekend.
This weekend England enter the fray, having won all nine of their games under head coach Eddie Jones, including a 3-0 series whitewash of Australia in June, and they will
face South Africa, Fiji, Argentina and the Wallabies at Twickenham in November and December. Unfortunately, they don’t play the All Blacks this series, the RFU baulking at the NZRFU’s £2m appearance fee.
England have not beaten South Africa in 12 matches, since 2006, but the home side has done so well in the past year and the visitors are in such a mess, in all respects from their structure back home, their recent record of four Test losses from five, their quota-affected selection to their tactical confusion, that there seems only one result possible and England should win.
This is despite a long list of injuries. England will be missing seven players from their Grand Slam side of nine months ago with Haskell, Itoje, Kruis, Watson, Nowell, Clifford and Tuilagi all out.
It would be a disappointment if England does not go through the four games unbeaten given their progress under Jones and the various issues afflicting the Southern Hemisphere sides. Perhaps Argentina will be their toughest challenge.
Also this weekend Scotland, at times a fast developing side from the 2015 RWC onwards without necessarily getting the results to prove it, host Australia whilst Wales are again in Cardiff, this time against Argentina.
Prices for these three games are as follows:
England 1-4 South Africa 4-1
England -10 at 10/11 Points handicap
England should win, and South Africa are at a low ebb. Ten points though look a bit high given England’s injury issues notwithstanding their squad depth. South Africa +10 for me in what should be a physical arm-wrestle of a game
Scotland 7/2 Australia 2/7
Australia -10 at 10/11 points handicap
I expect Australia to cover here, purely as they are playing Scotland in the hosts’ first international for five months and Australia, now with three wins in their last five tests, are match ready.
Wales 8/13 Argentina 7/4
Wales are -5 on the points handicap at 10/11
Wales should improve, but I like Argentina outright here at 7/4 with PaddyPower or Betfair Sportsbook
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