Sri Lanka are having a dreadful time of it at the moment and they could be forgiven for desperately wanting to get home and put their horror tour of the UAE against Pakistan behind them.
But they can’t – just yet. There is the small matter of three T20s first. And the last one of those will be in Lahore, Pakistan marking the team’s return to the country since a terrorist attack on their team bus.
They lost the ODI series five-zip. It was something of a surprise they were so bad considering they had stunned Pakistan 2-0 in the Tests. It was an outlier of a result. Indeed, it is Sri Lanka’s only two victories (in any format you like) in their last 16 matches, a sequence stretching back to July.
So, gulp, we thought it might be worth backing them at +250 (Bet365, Betway) to win Abu Dhabi in game one on Thursday. Why? Well, for a start we would never, ever consider Pakistan value at prices as short as -275, even to beat an amateur team.
Secondly, this is T20 where anything can happen. It is not really a team game. It’s about individuals. Well, it can be. It only takes one or two to do something spectacular and the form book is flipped.
And Sri Lanka has some players who can be effective in T20. Thisara Perera, the skipper, is one of those. We also like all-rounder Danushka Gunathilaka, opener Dilshan Munaweera, and spinner Seekkuge Prasanna.
Their form is decent, too this year. They have recorded series wins over South Africa and Australia. And although it is true that Pakistan are rated superior, we think they are worth a small gamble here. But there is a caveat: only if they bat first.
There is a toss bias at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium. Nine of the last 12 ODIs have been won by the side batting first. And although that is not replicated in T20, we think there is something to it and it serves as a comfort rug when taking on a short odds-on chance.
As for other wagers, skipper Perera is underrated at +1200 with BetVictor for top runscorer honors while for Pakistan Babar Azam is a great bet.
Babar should open for Pakistan and remind us all while he is a coming force in the world game. He is No 5 in the ICC ratings and he could be the next great batter Pakistan have produced.
More importantly, he is around a +260 shot statistically when it comes to copping on this market so the +350 available with Unibet and 888Sport is terrific.
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