Man City’s season is threatening to unravel after they recorded back to back Premiership defeats for the first time under Pep Guardiola, to leave them seven points behind league leaders, Chelsea. They conceded seven goals in two games and really look at sixes and sevens at the back, so Watford – fresh from a superb 3-1 win over Everton – will be licking their lips at the prospect of playing them.
The Chelsea game was a bit of a disaster for Guardiola’s men. They were 1-0 when Kevin de Bruyne missed a gilt-edged chance to double their lead, and minutes later Diego Costa had equalized. Then City’s defensive frailties told as they conceded twice to breakaway goals from Willian and Eden Hazard, before it all descended into chaos, with Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho both sent off for violent conduct.
Both were missed in their last game against Leicester, and will still be missed when they face Watford as they are serving lengthy bans. But what was more of a problem against Leicester was City’s leaky defense. They have now conceded, more than Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd and even West Brom and Southampton. They are devastating going forwards, even without star man Aguero, but the defense looks set to derail their title bid. The absence through injury of captain Vincent Kompany is once again a major blow. But the formation does not seem right either. Against Leicester, City played with three at the back, and one of that three – Aleksandar Kolarov – would not stop bombing forward, so much so that he scored and went close a couple of times. But that left gaping holes at the back, and de Bruyne and Jesus Navas, ostensibly wing backs did not get back to help and seemed unsure what to do. That played right into the hands of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy, who tore City apart time and time again, recording a 4-2 win.
Watford’s Troy Deeney and Stefano Okaka are not quite at the level of those two, but they are dangerous, as they showed by putting Everton to the sword at the weekend. You feel that with their gung-ho brand of football, exciting though it is for the neutral, City are always going to concede, and the stats back that up as they have conceded more than a goal per game this season and have not kept a clean sheet in ages. That being said, they always look like scoring too and haven’t failed to do so in a long time either. Both teams to score in this game looks a great bet at 1.87.
The question is whether Man City can outscore Watford. The bookies think they can, and have made City odds-on favourites. Watford is rank outsiders at 12.50, but they deserve better than that, and you could look to give them a plus handicap. You can go all the way to Watford +2 on the European handicap with Stand James, one of the high rated green Listed Bookmaker, and still get 2.20. It has been a long time since Man City won by two goals. Their only recent wins have come against relatively feeble opposition – relegation-threatened Crystal Palace and Burnley – and in those games, they could only win by a single goal. Watford is having an excellent season under Walter Mazzarri and are seventh in the league, just three places below City and well ahead of Palace and Burnley, and if they do lose this they could well keep the margin of defeat down to a single goal, so that looks an intriguing betting option.
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