Managers coming up against their old club is not a particularly well-trodden value path for punters. In the hurly-burly of the modern game, it is probably a bit nuanced for some to stop and wonder whether the old gaffer might have the edge over the new gaffer because he knows his old players better than his new ones if you get me.
There is, of course, no wide-reaching trend for us to rely on. And why would there be? This is very much an individual state of affairs. So that is where we find the trends.
And there is a good one to exploit on Tuesday night in League One where Oxford United, play-off hopefuls, take on the section leaders Sheffield United.
It is a tasty enough battle considering Oxford are one of the more attractive teams outside of the Premier League against a versatile Blades without there being a bit of needle.
You see, Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder used to manage Oxford. He had six successful years at the club, rescuing them from oblivion in non-league football and establishing them as a Football League club once again.
But since his departure in 2014 – when he left a promotion chaser for Northampton who were adrift at the foot of the league – he has been ultra-motivated against his old team because he feels he didn’t get the resources required to take them further, or the respect for over-performing on a small budget.
The current manager at Oxford does have the resources and respect. Okay, there are different owners now but Michael Appleton has the budget which Wilder dreamt of at Oxford. And the gulf has caused friction between the two. Wilder’s Northampton soundly beat Oxford in the League Two title race last season, leaving Appleton, unwisely, to claim his “were the best footballing team in the division”.
And there’s the rub. Oxford are pretty, often dynamic, rarely dull. But they can only play one way and have a consistent habit of being outmuscled by teams. Those that are direct and get the ball up the pitch early almost always beat them. Oxford knows this but doesn\’t have the players to counter it because it’s just not their way of playing.
Wilder’s teams have consistently exposed this. His Sheffield United team beat Oxford 2-1 at home earlier in the season. The three previous occasions Wilder managed against Oxford (all with Northampton) they won 1-0 with forceful performances, relying on runners in the channels and getting the ball forward quickly.
Overall Wilder’s record against Oxford since leaving is played six, won five, drawn, won, and lost one. His teams have scored ten goals and let in six.
The Blades are even money for victory and that looks like printing money considering Wilder will have drummed into his players the tactics required to win the game. He would love to go there and win 3-0 playing flowing football but he’s a pragmatist who will get the job done.
Oxford have lost their last two home games 2-0 to Southend and Bristol Rovers. Both were physical and direct. Oxford are also worried about the fitness of flair players like Chris Maguire and Rob Hall as a packed schedule and small squad takes its toll.
We will have a decent lump on the result but a 2-1 Blades win at 8 with BetVictor is worth a nibble as well.
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