This column is having a rather successful time with its FA Cup top picks. So it would be remiss not to wade in again with the best bets for the fourth round. It can be tricky for punters to try to decipher the respective merits of teams who almost never play each other. One can never be sure how teams will fare punching above, or below, their weight.
Southampton v Arsenal
With that last query in mind, we’ve selected this one for opening salvo against the bookies. We are sweet on Arsenal because, in an all-Premier League tussle, we are convinced that Arsene Wenger’s side have the edge.
And they’re a nice price, too. They are available at 2.15 on Betfair and should have too much for a Southampton outfit flattered by their last two results. They beat a disorganized and disinterested Leicester City and then knocked out Liverpool in the League Cup semis.
Okay, so the win at Anfield was impressive but were they playing with freedom because they were not expected to win? There is more pressure for this game and we could again see the Saints side who not long ago had one win in six.
Rochdale v Huddersfield
Previous to their 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Oxford United on Saturday, Rochdale had won ten games straight. But that lapse can be easily explained.
They were without key centre-half Keith Keane and looked totally lost without him. Rochdale have won 14 of 18 games Keane has started, but only six of 19 without him. We are expecting a much-improved performance with Keane back from suspension.
There is a chance Huddersfield could rest key players. That would be a mistake. But with the Terriers keeping their cards close to their chest, we may have to swerve the 3.5 (Bet365) about an upset in case they go full-strength. So take the 2 that 888Bet offer on the Asian handicap with Rochdale plus 0.25.
Oxford v Newcastle
Why is this not on television? It is an absolute belter of a cup tie. And a terrific betting heat, too. We have a real fancy for Oxford here against a Newcastle team who are expected to rest first-team players. Big mistake.
Swansea did that last season at Oxford in the Cup and they were well-beaten. Any hint of Newcastle taking the game lightly and they could be punished by an Oxford team who play expansively and with pace.
Newcastle are without three players are at the African Cup of Nations, Dwight Gayle, Vurnon Anita, Aleksandar Mitrovic, Sammy Ameobi and Jamie Sterry. This is the sort of stuff that reduces the gulf.
Oxford have won nine of their last 15 and are smashing the goals in. They are overpriced at 5 with green listed bookmaker Bet365. Alternatively, you can bet goals. We are expecting a glut and over 2.5 with Marathon is free money.
Double chance
We will take on two of the giant killers of the previous round for a double which pays just over 3 with Marathon. Sutton United and Lincoln City are expected to come unstuck against Brighton and Leeds respectively. It is rare indeed for the killers to strike again and against this caliber of opposition, it would be a major surprise if they managed a repeat.
Both Brighton and Leeds are absolutely flying in the Championship and even if they rest key men, the gulf should be too big. Sutton knocked out Wimbledon last time in a physical battle and they will hope Leeds wilt under pressure. No chance. This lot can mix it and pass it. Just as they did at Cambridge in round three.
Lincoln beat Ipswich 1-0 with a late goal and as romantic as it was, we are not convinced. Ipswich were woeful and a pub team would have given them a going over. Brighton are forewarned and forearmed.
Calculators
