Everton’s moniker as the Toffeemen is probably one of the most outdated for the slick modern game. But it at least rings true when it comes to the Merseyside derby. They have a decidedly sticky record – no wins in their last 13.
They are as big as 5.25 with Bet365 to get the win when they cross Stanley Park to take on Liverpool on Saturday. It is a hefty old price and tells you all you need to know about the slim pickings from their rivals.
Liverpool are no better than 1.72 (188Bet) with the draw coming in at 4.1 with Unibet. The inclination of the punter is to look to get that price about the home team beat.
Help is at hand. An injury to Adam Lallana robs Liverpool of one of their most important players. He picked up a thigh injury in England’s 2-0 victory over Lithuania at Wembley in World Cup qualifying.
Lallana’s star is on the rise for club and country because of his versatility. And it’s not hype, which is genuinely saying something when we’re talking about the English football media. The former Southampton man can play everywhere. He can stay disciplined on the wing, drift into the midfield or drop into the second striker role.
Not surprisingly Liverpool misses him when he is not available. Granted it is not very often but on the nine occasions he has been unavailable in all competitions this season, Liverpool’s win percentage has dropped from 57 to 50.
So, in essence, it could be argued that Liverpool are an even money shot without Lallana. This is our edge. The stat heavily suggests Liverpool are poor value.
There is a bit more to Everton, however than relying on the opposition losing one of their best players. They have lost only one of their last 11 matches. And the defeat before that was a narrow 1-0 reverse at Goodison to the Reds.
What they are good at is scoring goals. It would really take a leap of faith to try to get a short jolly beat with a team who were shot-shy but this lot are terrific going forward.
They have notched 17 in their last six and one of those matches was a 0-0 draw against Middlesbrough. Again, it’s the only time they have recorded ‘nil’ since that defeat by Liverpool.
And Liverpool are hardly a mean machine when it comes to defending. This year they have let at least one goal in every single match apart from the 2-0 success over Tottenham Hotspur at home.
So this is where it gets interesting. You can play short with Bwin’s 1.8 about both teams scoring or you can play somewhere in the middle with Everton +0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.32 with Unibet.
But how about some big priced correct scores? There is a clear logic to a 2-2 draw at 17 with William Hill while a 3-2 home win comes in at 26 with green listed bookmakers Bet365.
As for the Everton to win on the match odds, it might be savvy to swerve that and go for the 18 with Paddy Power that they win 2-1 and finally end that sticky patch.
Calculators
