The fourth round of pool matches are the reverse fixtures from last weekend’s, and likely to be pivotal to hopes of qualification for the knock-out stages. The games are as follows:
Glasgow Warriors v Racing 92
Glasgow produced the result of round 3 winning in Paris last weekend, beating Racing 23-14 with a notable performance from fly-half Finn Russell who outplayed Dan Carter.
For the return match, bookmakers aren’t giving Glasgow a lot of credit for the win. Outrights have them 5/6, Racing Evens and only +/- 1 point on the handicap.
Racing should be expected to perform better, but Glasgow isn’t an easy place to visit in December, an open ground subject to the elements. Glasgow at 5/6 with William Hill has to be backed.
Bordeaux-Begles v Exeter Chiefs
Bordeaux beat Exeter 13-7 in the West Country in the final game of round 3, a great result for traditionally poor travelers. In this tough group with two French teams, three teams including Ulster now have two wins and a loss and qualification is going to be extremely tight. Exeter meanwhile are almost out of contention with three successive losses to start the pool.
Bordeaux-Begles are strongly expected to win again by the market at 1/6, Exeter available at 9/2. The hosts are 13 point favourites on the handicap (10/11 Bet365). Given the form of the away side, Bordeaux can be expected to cover
Leicester v Munster
Munster stuffed Leicester 38-0 in Limerick to top this group at the half way stage ahead of Glasgow. Munster are part of a broad resurgence of performances from the Irish provinces in this season’s competition. Whilst Munster won’t have their massive home advantage that exists at Thormond Park this weekend at Leicester they do look the superior team with Leicester so inconsistent this season.
Leicester are 11/8 underdogs, Munster 4/6 and 2 point favourites on the handicap. Munster -2 10/11 Bet365 for me for this game.
Toulouse v Zebre
As expected Toulouse coasted to a bonus point win in Italy last weekend, winning 36-6 before the match was stopped early due to fog. Anything other than the same in Toulouse this weekend would be a huge surprise against the weakest team in the competition.
Toulouse are 38 point favourites on the handicap spread (10/11 Bet365). Zebre have conceded 180 points in three games, and I confidently expect Toulouse to beat the spread.
Connacht v Wasps
Connacht were right in the game at 17-20 after an hour on Sunday, missed a kick to draw level and Wasps, helped by a strong bench, pulled away in the last quarter to record a bonus point win and top the group
It could be a different story in Galway this weekend, a very tough place for visiting teams to play. Connacht had a big advantage at scrum-time in the first match and will be looking to exert pressure on Wasps and keep their dangerous back line on the back foot.
Wasps are 4/9 favourites here with Paddy Power, Connacht 15/8 home underdogs. That 15/8 is a tempting outright price, as is Connacht +5 at 10/11 with the same firm which is my choice for the game. I think it will be very close.
Leinster v Northampton
Leinster won 37-10 at Northampton last Friday, playing against 14 men for the last 25 minutes when they pulled away in what had been a close game. Leinster went to the top of the group a point ahead of Montpellier and this is a must-win ahead of the Montpellier’s visit later in the pool. Northampton lacked intensity in the first game and have underperformed for most of the season. All that helps explain why the visitors are 15/2 with Paddy Power here and Leinster are 16 point favourites on the handicap. A no bet game for me, but not expecting an upset.
Scarlets v Toulon
Toulon recorded a bonus point win in the south of France on Sunday winning 31-20. They haven’t been the best travelers in pool stage games for the last 18 months but their star-studded side should have too much for the Welsh side. In fact, it’s a bit of a surprise to see them only 5 point favourites on the point spread (10/11 William Hill), a better alternative than taking the 4/9 prevailing outright prices
Castres v Montpellier
Montpellier beat Castres 32-14 last weekend to keep in touch with Leinster at the top of the pool despite having a player sent off early on. Visiting Castres is difficult, it’s a tight ground with passionate fans and Castres often perform above themselves at home but it\’s reflected in prices available for the game that have Castres 10/11, Montpellier at Evens Bet365. That event is one of the best bets of the weekend.
Clermont-Auvergne v Ulster
In one of the ties of the round, Ulster beat Clermont 39-32 in Belfast last Saturday, with Clermont taking home a losing and try bonus point from the result. A very tough pool this, with three teams vying for qualification but Clermont at home is a tough proposition for any side. With Clermont only available at 1/5 for the return fixture, this is understood well enough by the markets. Ulster +9 at 10/11 with Green Listed Bookmaker William Hill is quite tempting, but not a game I will be betting
Sale v Saracens
Saracens, reigning champions and one of the very strongest sides in this year’s competition, thrashed Sale 50-3 last Sunday to remain clear at the top of the pool. It would be a huge surprise if they did not secure a bonus point win here and should cover a 16 point handicap, even as the away side, at 10/11 William Hill. Probably my strongest bet on the point spread over the upcoming weekend this.
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