At the start of the Premier League football season, this column picked Manchester City to win the title under the stewardship of Pep Guardiola. Why? Well, chiefly because they had spent the most money.
There has been an enormous number of studies which have tried to decipher how and why football titles are won. And the top answer that almost always comes back is this: money talks. Or conversely, pay peanuts you get monkeys. Those teams with the biggest playing budgets in their respective leagues almost always come out on top.
Another school of thought, however, is that the teams who win more than most are those who keep possession of the ball the most. After all, if you have the ball you’re not going to let in a goal are you? Indeed, you are actually working your way towards scoring a goal. It’s pretty basic stuff, eh?
What would be nice, for punters, was if it transpired that the teams who spend the most money also keep the ball better – for longer and their passing is more accurate. It would stand to reason that the clubs who have spent the most money on the most technically gifted players would be at the head of those ratings.
Guess what? It’s true. City, are better at keeping the ball than anyone else in the Premier League this term. They boast 67.1 per cent ball possession and average 22 seconds with the ball. That’s 22 seconds closer they are to scoring a goal and 22 seconds where they will not concede.
They are ranked as the fifth-best in Europe with Celtic coming out on top with an incredible rating of 70.8. This says more about the strength of the Scottish league than Celtic’s strength, though. If you haven’t had a EPL outright bet yet then the -110 with Paddy Power still represents value about City in our book.
For clarification, their nearest rivals and second favourites, Manchester United, are some way behind on the numbers. They are way down in joint-73rd with 56.2 per cent, keeping the ball for 19 seconds. By contrast they are +275 (Betfair) for the title.
But given these stats have been produced in a European context – and in a European week at that – we must consider City to be value for the Champions League, too.
City are rated fifth favourites. Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern Munich and Barcelona all come before them in the betting. Yet only PSG keep the ball better (67.7) and they keep the ball for one second fewer. Pep’s men are +1200 with Bet Victor. PSG are +560 and other green listed bookmakers.
A word also for Borussia Dortmund. They are the genuine ‘leaders’ of this stats section considering the Bundesliga wipes the floor with the Scottish Premier League for competitiveness. They rate at 70.2 and also keep the ball for 22 seconds.
At +5000 with Bet365 they are surely worth following each-way to win the Champions League.
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