Reading v Newcastle United
On Tuesday evening Reading will play host to league leaders Newcastle United. Whilst both clubs are having successful seasons, it is perhaps Reading that have over-achieved, while the Magpies are fully expected to return to the Premier League at the first attempt.
Reading currently sits fifth in the table, with a seven-point cushion between themselves and Fulham, who are currently one place outside the play-offs. Realistically their goal for this season will be to finish in the play-off places and to take their chances from there. A top six finish would represent a remarkable achievement for Jaap Stam, in his first managerial season in English football.
The main reason for Reading’s success this season has been their excellent form at The Madejski Stadium, where they have won 12, drawn 4, and lost only twice. Only Brighton have a better home record. However, they always seem to come up short in games against the stronger teams in this league. The main reason for this is their lack of firepower in front of goal (Yann Kermorgant is their top scorer this season with just nine goals). Just to illustrate this problem, prior to the weekend’s 2-1 victory at home to struggling Wolves, they also lost away at title contenders Huddersfield (1-0) and Brighton (3-0).
Newcastle meanwhile, have by far the best away record in the league, where they have won seventy-two percent of their games. They recently struggled to a 2-2 draw at home to Bristol City in a game where they missed a host of chances. The main reason for this was that they were without leading marksman; Dwight Gayle, who is currently second top scorer in the Championship.
That game now, however, seems a distant memory, as they have won two huge away games on the bounce over the last week; away at their two main rivals for automatic promotion (1-2 at Brighton and 1-3 at Huddersfield). They also did this largely without Gayle, who was a late substitute in the Huddersfield game, where he scored Newcastle’s third goal.
Newcastle’s away record (Won 13, Drawn 2, Lost 3) is almost identical to Reading’s home record, so this would suggest that the match will be a tight affair. Interestingly, The Magpies have only kept one clean sheet in their last eight away from home, so there is perhaps some value in taking both teams to score – Newcastle won the reverse fixture 4-1 back in August.
Given that Dwight Gayle will likely start in this game I can only see one winner here. Newcastle will be full of confidence after beating their two main rivals for automatic promotion and with superior quality and firepower throughout the team, I fully expect them to take the three points here when making my predictions with green listed bookmakers.
My best bets for this match:
Newcastle United Win at 2.04 with Unibet
Dwight Gayle to Score Anytime at 2.00 with Bet365
Both Team to Score at 1.83 with 10Bet
Calculators
