At the start of the Big Bash this column was firmly against the Melbourne Stars. There was a lot to dislike about the pre-tournament favourites.
For a start, we didn’t like their record of failing in pressure games. Never have they won the thing. We didn’t like how they relied on an individual ethic instead of a team ethic. We didn’t like how Kevin Pietersen was their marquee player despite the England batsman having a horrible record in franchise cricket in terms of trophies won.
Most of all, we didn’t like their price. We still don’t like it. They are no better than 4 for glory with Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes among the top green listed bookmakers.
Since the tournament began, their batting has not been what it could be and we are consistently alarmed by the fact that Ben Hilfenhaus bats at No 8. This is a slot in T20 where a destroyer of bowling attacks lies in waits. Not a Test medium-pacer.
But we must not let our distaste stop us from recognizing they are a good price. This the emotional challenge of betting. Do not let your ‘love’ or ‘hatred’ cloud your judgment. This is a numbers game.
Against Sydney Sixers, on Saturday they are chalked up at 1.91 with Boylesports. That’s a rick. And you don’t really need me to tell you that. Look at the odds on offer. Just 1.72. Or Betfred and 188Bet at 1.73.
We have also consistently said that we would not bet against Stars when odds on. The reality is that they just don’t get that big that often. This is as close as they get and we find it strange they are available at the price for a home game against a team which is under huge pressure.
The Sixers were seemingly coasting to the finals but have lost their way. It’s as if their SatNav was hacked and they’ve ended up teetering on the edge of 50 foot drop with little room for maneuver
the back of a brilliant chase against Melbourne Renegades, Sixers could manage only 99 against Thunder in the derby. NINETY-NINE! They weren’t even bowled out. How is that possible? There was a clue earlier in the tournament when they folded against Adelaide Strikers.
Those two are potentially cataclysmic margins of defeat because their run rate is vastly inferior to their rivals, meaning a loss almost certainly sees them miss out.
Spin killed them against Thunder and Stars have two excellent operatives in that department. Expect Adam Zampa and Michael Beer to prove to be the difference this time.
Calculators
