Plucky old Bangladesh got close to beating England in the first Test against England this week. They were done by 22 runs on the final morning. So near and yet so far.
The narrative is that Bangladesh were brave and they were unlucky. Courageous yes, but unlucky? Not at all. We can’t have any of that. To get so close to victory and then lose is careless. It is an ingrained trait which has already cost them against England on this tour. Remember the first ODI at Dhaka when they were cruising to victory and then imploded?
Punters don’t feel sorry for such sides. They don’t trust them. They say ‘how can I consider a team value who consistently get to the line only to fall over their own feet?’
For the second Test – also in Dhaka – Bangladesh are 7 (Stan James). There will no doubt plenty of takers. But are they a decent bet? A key statistic is this: in 45 home tests against the Top Eight nations, they have never won. That’s a bit bigger than a 7 shot. England are 1.85 (Sportingbet) and the draw is 3 with Betfred.
Of course, no one will actually worry if they’ve snaffled the 7 and Bangladesh go on to win. What will cause concern is if you bet them now and then the toss goes against them and they once again have to bat last on a raging turner.
The coin flip will surely be the most crucial aspect of the Test and the home team are likely to lose all hope if they don’t get the opportunity to bat first and, as the overs and days tick by, put England under the gun on a wearing dustbowl on day five with a target of 200 or more on the board.
Spin is expected in Dhaka. Lots of it. It would be a major surprise if Bangladesh has not ordered a wicket which will tweak heavily. They are trying to reduce the gulf between the teams – as is their right – so we have to be wary of such a process when discussing their odds.
Last June Bangladesh and South Africa met in a rain-affected Test. Only 88 overs were possible but in that short of space of time spin was already key. In total 44 overs were by spinners and of the eight wickets to fall four were to spinners – and hardly quality ones in the shape of Dean Elgar and JP Duminy.
In May of the same year, there is another pointer. Yasir Shah took seven-match wickets as Bangladesh were thrashed by Pakistan. Pakistan batted first, made a monster total and did not look back. This is why the toss is crucial.
If you need further evidence that this will be a spinner’s paradise look at the top wicket-taker at the venue. Shakib-al-Hasan, Bangladesh’s No 1 spinner, has 44 in 14 Tests. Shakib is 3.5 in many green listed bookmakers (Stan James, William Hill) to be top Bang bolwer in the first-innings.
Shakib took two wickets in the first-innings and five in the second in Chittagong The star of the first dig was teenage debutant Hasan Mehedi, who claimed six wickets. He is 4.3 (Boyelsports) to be the top bowler again.
We would urge caution about that price. England would have seen little of the kid before he ran into bowl. During the game, and the limited downtime, they will have been formulating tactics to nullify his threat. Experienced spinners will have an answer to hit back but it would be a turn-up if Hasan was good enough to do that so young.
The top England bowler market could be awash with value. In the days after game one, there have been strong suggestions from within the England camp that they could rest Stuart Broad and Chris Woakes. With a tour of India following almost immediately England are concerned of overworking their fast men in strength-sapping conditions.
Steven Finn, then, looks certain to play and he comes in at 6 (Ladbrokes). We consider that a good wager because of Finn, despite being in and out of the team, has a terrific strike rate in Tests.
The Bangladesh batsmen also looked far more uncomfortable against pace and bounce than they did against the turn. Coach Trevor Bayliss and captain Alastair Cook have both commented on how their spinners were not the threat they thought they would be.
In the first-innings, Finn is a better option with spinners Adil Rashid the 4.5 jolly with Ladbrokes and Moeen Ali 5 (Boylesports, Skybet) struggling for control. Gareth Batty is 5 across the board.
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