Thus far in the bowl season of 2022-23, the biggest takeaway is the number of lower-scoring games. Through Dec. 27, the UNDER is 14-7. This is definitely not the norm against the NCAAF odds in the first half of the bowl season.
As per usual, we have teams that are mostly 6-6 and 7-5 and they have flaws, typically on defense, the opposing team can exploit, particularly with two to four weeks of preparation.
In addition, the majority of teams annually playing this time of year have good offenses that are productive and have done well in putting up points on the scoreboard. This year to date that has not been the case.
The Causes for Lower Scoring
There is no one reason for fewer points, just several as you might imagine. It starts with the transfer portal. This has affected more than enough teams missing key players, especially at the skill positions.
Next, this is a variable that could go either way when it comes to points. What we have noticed across the board is the number of turnovers all teams have committed inside their opponent’s 35-yard line when they were getting into scoring position.
Often, teams will take advantage of turnovers and convert those into points, however, because the majority have occurred deep in the defensive club’s territory, they have to drive a longer distance instead of having a shorter field.
Finally, many offenses have stalled in the red zone which has led to more field goals than touchdowns. We are seeing defenses attack offenses on running plays between the tackles with run blitzes and get to the quarterback and force errant throws in passing situations, especially on third down.
Add all of this together and this explains what we have seen.
Will Lower Scores Continue?
As we start seeing better teams from this point forward in more bowls, we expect the scoring to rise. If teams have most of their best offensive players still intact, chances are the offenses will have more continuity and a better rhythm to them, which should lead to higher scores.
Nevertheless, you have to know there are good numbers of squads still playing that are missing a variety of players that can impact their success on offense and that will keep college football picks on totals lower. For the remainder of the bowl season, we’ll project a few more Unders than Overs. Watch for those in the 50s, the UNDER is 7-3.
What Does Against The Spread Betting Look Like?
For the most part, the first portion of the bowl season has gone as expected. Favorites are 13-8 SU with underdogs 11-10 ATS. It is seldom a bad betting strategy to take underdogs in the beginning 20 or more contests with teams having similar records and recognizable flaws.
Looking ahead, you should have down the strengths and weaknesses of each team for each bowl game. In seeking edges, you have to know varied elements like bowl coaching experience differences, bowl records of coaches or teams, and keeping an eye on line movement.
Coming into this bowl season, when the line went one direction of four points or more over the last 39 seasons, the steamed team was 31-17-1 ATS.
Don’t Miss This Feature Either
Every year, no matter what the perceived value of a conference is, some conferences do better than expected and others fail.
Smart football bettors keep daily charts on this and look to grab an edge along with the other handicapping they have already completed. Here is a recent list that explains what we mean.
Bowl Challenge Cup Champions
- 2010–11 Mountain West 4–1
- 2011–12 Conference USA 4–1/MAC 4–1
- 2012–13 Conference USA 4–1
- 2013–14 SEC 7–3
- 2014–15 Conference USA 4–1
- 2015–16 SEC 9–2
- 2016–17 ACC 9–3
- 2017–18 Big Ten 7–1
- 2018–19 Conference USA 4–2
- 2019–20 SEC 8–2
- 2020–21 Big 12 5–0
- 2021–22 Mountain West 5–1
These are all SU records, yet, it gives you a strong indication of how a conference is performing and you can pick up some late cash knowing this in the bowl season.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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