Washington vs. Oregon NCAAF Week 11 Top Picks: Huskies Gunning for 4th Straight

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Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies is pressured by Omar Speights #1 of the Oregon State Beavers. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP.

The Washington Huskies have won their last 3 and are looking to make it 4 straight with an upset win over the Ducks.

Let’s review the college football odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our college football picks!

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Washington Huskies vs. Oregon Ducks

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Autzen Stadium

Washington Beating the Ranked

Washington has played just 2 ranked (at the time of the game) teams and has won both contests, with the first coming against a paper tiger in No. 11 Michigan State by the score of 39-28 in their 3rd game of the year.

The latest dragon to be slayed occurred last week in the form of a 24-21 victory over No. 23 Oregon State.

Huskies’ quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has been a force of nature in this, his first season with the team since transferring from Indiana, and did it again with 298 passing yards in blustery conditions while engineering the game-winning drive when Peyton Henry split the uprights from 22 yards away with under 8 seconds remaining.

"We knew if we gave them the ball back, we probably wouldn't have got it back," Penix said. "We wanted to make sure that we took advantage of that drive and make sure we got down there and got some points on the board. And it was great that we took up all that clock."

Oregon Soaring to Pac-12 Title Game

There are currently 5 nationally ranked teams in the Pac-12 and Oregon sits atop the conference with a perfect 6-0 conference record. And while it would appear the Ducks are destined for another bite at the conference championship apple, after bowing in the big game to Utah last season, they still have a gritty opponent in Washington this Saturday.

The Ducks will then welcome No.14 Utah next week followed by a road tilt against No. 23 Oregon State to wrap the season.

In Oregon’s last game, the Ducks made short work of lowly Colorado in Boulder and walked away with a convincing 49-10 victory. Bo Nix was 20-of-24 for 274 passing yards, launched 2 TD strikes, added 2 more rushing touchdowns, and even caught an 18-yard touchdown pass from his tailback, Bucky Irving. Speaking of whom, Irving led all rushers with 120 yards on 11 carries.

"We don't care about stats. Stats are for losers," said Ducks head coach Dan Lanning. "I'm sure our players take pride in it. I don't want that to come across the wrong way. The goal is always to win."

Oregon has now scored 40 points or more in 8 straight games, the first time since 2014, and had it not been for a season debut in which Georgia annihilated them, 49-0, Oregon would be squarely immersed in the CFP conversation. But as it stands now, they are on the outside looking in as the sixth-ranked team in the nation with an 8-1 overall mark.

Total Trends

  • Over is 8-2 in the Huskies’ last 10 games overall.
  • Over is 8-2 in the Huskies’ last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Huskies’ last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 7-0 in the Ducks’ last 7 games on field turf.
  • Over is 6-0 in the Ducks’ last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 9-1 in the Ducks’ last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Ducks’ last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

Washington vs. Oregon: Game Prediction

The masses will be backing the Ducks because they are a household name at this point and have won and covered in their last 5 games, and 7 of their last 8. When the public is making money on a particular team, they rarely view them with a critical eye, they just bet on them hand over fist.p

We must also recognize that while the Ducks have been a veritable ATM, the Huskies have been downright money-burners, having failed to cover in their last 5 contests. It all adds up to big money pouring in on one side as we have already seen, as this line has risen from Oregon -12 to where it currently stands at -13.5.

If you think I’m about to make a case for the road dog, you’re right. If we know what the public is thinking then we can be absolutely certain so too do the oddsmakers. This line is inflated because of everything we’ve just discussed and it’s an ideal opportunity to get a high-flying offense whose passing attack is ranked tops in the nation with the Huskies averaging 370.2 yards per game.

Final Picks

And if you were a bit underwhelmed with Penix’s stats last Friday (giving Washington an extra day to prep for this one), then consider the weather conditions.

The wind was so fierce there was a 25-minute power outage and Penix still went 30-of-52 for 298 yards and had a 24-yard touchdown pass.

The junior is averaging over 359 yards per game and leads the nation in passing. He will be faced with Oregon’s 117th-ranked pass defense.

Give me that matchup and 13.5 points and I’ll take the road pup all day long.

Score Prediction: Oregon 44 - Washington 36

NCAAF Pick: Washington +13.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Washington +13.5 (-110)
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NCAAF Pick: Over 72.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 72.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.