Wake Forest vs. NC State NCAAF Week 10 Betting Preview: Wolfpack on 15-Game Home Win Streak

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MJ Morris #16 of the North Carolina State Wolfpack drops back to pass against the Virginia Tech Hokies. Lance King/Getty Images/AFP.

It’s two ACC Atlantic Division teams looking to better their bowl standing on Saturday when No. 20 Wake Forest faces No. 21 NC State.

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack 

Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Carter-Finley Stadium

The ACC Network has this Atlantic Division matchup between the No. 20 Demon Deacons and No. 21 Wolfpack. Wake Forest is the defending Atlantic champion, divisions go away next year, but will not be repeating. NC State won’t be winning it either: Clemson will. 

Last year, Wake beat NC State 45-42. Sam Hartman threw for 290 yards and three scores, but was picked off three times. He also rushed for a touchdown. Justice Ellison had three TDs. Wolfpack counterpart Devin Leary threw for 408 and four TDs, but was picked twice. It was NC State’s ninth loss in 10 games at Winston-Salem since 2011. 

The Wolfpack lead the all-time series 67-42-6 and are 37-20-4 at home. Four of the last five meetings overall have been decided by six points or fewer. The only exception is a 44-10 blowout home win for the Deacs in 2019. The favorite is 6-2 ATS on the NCAAF picks in the past eight meetings.  


Wake Forest Off Turnover-Fest 

Any shot the Deacons had of winning the Atlantic went out the window on Saturday in a 48-21 loss at Louisville, Wake’s only other loss was in double overtime to Clemson.  

Against the Cardinals, Wake Forest had a whopping 8 turnovers: 4 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles. Six of the turnovers were in the third quarter alone and led to 35 Louisville points. 

Sam Hartman

QB Sam Hartman is a very good player and might play on Sundays in the future, but he was downright bad with three of the picks and three of the fumbles.  

"Credit to Louisville, Coach Satterfield, their coaching staff and their players. They completely outplayed us. They won both lines of scrimmage. They won on the perimeter. They deserved to win the game. We have a good football team, but I did not have us ready to go today. We're always a team that has taken care of the football,” Wake coach Dave Clawson said. 

In five of the last six seasons, the Demon Deacons have finished inside of the Top 25 nationally in turnover margin while placing in the top three of ACC in each of those seasons. Over the past seven seasons, Wake Forest has a combined +40 turnover margin, so yeah that Louisville game was unusual.  

Hartman is now alone in sixth in ACC history with 112 touchdowns responsible for in his career, one away from Phillip Rivers for fifth. Hartman is third in career passing touchdowns and is the FBS career active leader in passing touchdowns with 94. 

Wake Forrest's Offense

Offense is not a problem for Hartman’s team. Wake Forest’s 311 total points is on pace to break the single-season scoring record set last season (574).

The Deacs are averaging 38.9 points, which is 13th nationally. Since the start of the 2017 season, Wake Forest’s 169 touchdown passes are the most of any school in the ACC and that total ranks ninth nationally during that span.  

Wake is 4-0 ATS on the NCAAF picks in its past four after a loss.  


NC State On Extra Rest 

The Wolfpack are on a bit of extra rest as they played on Thursday in Week 9 and beat visiting Virginia Tech 22-21, the Hokies led 21-3 late in the third quarter.

Preseason ACC Player of the Year and quarterback Devin Leary was injured in early October and is done for the year. He hasn’t decided yet whether to return to school next season or head to the NFL.  

“For me, I can’t make any kind of decision without being healthy, without knowing when I’m going to throw again. My every single day is about attacking rehab so I can get better,” he said. 

Chambers and Morris

Jack Chambers had taken over as the starter, but he was pulled with the Pack down 18 points against Tech and replaced by freshman MJ Morris, who threw for 265 yards and three touchdowns. In the playoff era, Morris became one of just six true freshmen with 20 completions, 260 yards and three touchdowns and no interceptions in a single game.

He's the first true freshman quarterback to accomplish the feat since 2019. Morris was named the ACC Rookie of the Week and will start this game, and it doesn’t sound like Coach Dave Doeren has plans to mix in Chambers.  

It was NC State’s 15th straight home win, the sixth-best active winning streak in the FBS and second-longest in the history of Carter-Finley Stadium, which opened in 1966.  

Injury Report

One piece of bad news: Defensive end Savion Jackson had surgery on his knee and won’t be back this season.

Jackson hurt himself against Syracuse and didn’t play against Virginia Tech. Jackson had 15 tackles, including three for a loss, in seven games this season.  

This will mark the sixth time NC State will face a ranked Wake Forest team. The Wolfpack are 2-2-1 in the previous five.


The Pick

NC State has the far superior defense, so I think it can stay within four at home if not win outright. Wake has covered just one of its past seven in Raleigh.  

NCAAF Pick: NC State +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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NC State +4.5 (-110)
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