UTSA vs. San Diego State Frisco Bowl Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Lucas Johnson #7 of the San Diego State Aztecs. Darryl Oumi/Getty Images/AFP

A little December weather can help the under beat the NCAAF odds when San Diego State host the UTSA Roadrunners at the Frisco Bowl. 

 UTSA Roadrunners vs. San Diego State Aztecs 

Tuesday, December 21, 2021 – 07:30 PM EST at Toyota Stadium

You know college football is messed up when there are two different Frisco Bowls. Don’t be confused by the one-off Frisco Football Classic on December 23; the one we’re talking about today is the original McCoy, with a rich tradition stretching all the way back to... 2014. That’s if you include the first three games of the Miami Beach Bowl, which was then sold to ESPN and relocated to Frisco, Texas. Bless this mess. 
 
The important thing is it’s bowl season, which means it is go-time for our college football picks. The betting market will be overflowing with public money, more so as we get closer to the National Championship Game.

Underdogs and the Under will be the sharp choice in many of these matchups; this tilt between the UTSA Roadrunners (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) and San Diego State (11-2 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) is no exception, with San Diego State available as 2.5-point underdogs on the NCAAF odds board with YouWager (visit our YouWager Review) and the total set at 49.5 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review).

Under Armor 

The early consensus reports are definitely in our corner. San Diego State are drawing 65 percent support at press time, while the under has received unanimous consent thus far. As a general rule, early action is sharp action – the betting public is more likely to chime in as we get closer to kick-off. 
 
The projections are in our favor, too. At least they are at the USA Today, where Jeff Sagarin has UTSA winning by just 0.97 points, and the two teams combining for 46.75 points. ESPN’s Football Power Index is more bullish on the Roadrunners, giving them a 60.7-percent chance of winning; that’s the rough equivalent of –3.5 according to Wizard of Odds.

We don’t have any (free) backup projections for the total to work with, but if you’re only going to make one bet on the Frisco Bowl, the under might be the safer choice. 

Frigid Frisco

That’s partly because of the weather. This particular venue is an outdoor stadium, not too far from Dallas, and yes, it gets a bit cold there in December. Game-time temperatures somewhere in the low 40s can be expected; it’s too early to say whether it might rain or not, or how windy it will be, but San Diego State won’t be as used to these conditions as other teams. 
 
One also has to wonder how motivated SDSU will be for this matchup. They got blown out 46-13 by Utah State (+6.5) in the Mountain West Championship Game, losing out on a chance to play in the first Jimmy Kimmel L.A. Bowl.

Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are the Conference USA champions, and they’re playing a de facto home game against a San Diego State team with the No. 105-ranked offense in the FBS (and the No. 12 defense) according to the F+ charts at Football Outsiders. For our best bets, we’ll buy that under for a dollar. 

NCAAF Pick: Under 49.5 (–108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Under 49.5 (–108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.