Utah vs. Colorado NCAAF Week 13 Top Picks: Will Utah’s Decade of Domination Continue?

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Clark Phillips III #1 of the Utah Utes waits for the ball during warmups before their game against the Stanford Cardinal. Chris Gardner/ Getty Images/AFP

Utah has won nine of its last 10 meetings with Colorado and there is little evidence to support Colorado breaking that streak. But the sportsbooks are giving the Buffaloes a boatload of points, which means they may not win, but they could very well get the cover.

Let’s review the college football odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our college football picks!


Utah Utes vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Saturday, November 26, 2022 – 04:00 PM EST at Folsom Field

The Utes (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) suffered a backbreaking conference loss last week as they bowed, 20-17, in Eugene to Oregon. Utah has now been virtually –although not completely– eliminated from Pac-12 title contention and tumbled from No. 10 to No. 14 in the nation.

Utes’ quarterback, Cameron Rising, had a tough day at the office, passing for 170 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. The day was a little bit brighter for the Utes’ rushing attack, as they managed 156 yards, including an 18-yard jet sweep touchdown by senior wideout, Jaylen Dixon.

If there was a silver lining, Utah’s defense held Oregon quarterback, Bo Nix, to only one touchdown pass while sophomore cornerback, Clark Phillips III, picked him off late in the fourth quarter. But it should be noted that Nix was operating on a gimpy ankle and almost missed the game due to injury.


Buffalo Meat

The season can’t end too soon for Colorado (1-10 SU, 2-9 ATS) as they have been blown out in every game this season except two. The first was their only win of the season as they stunned California, 20-13 in overtime, as 15-point home underdogs. The second was an eight-point loss to Arizona State as the Buffaloes brought home the cash for those who backed them as 13-point home pups.

Those are the highlights of a spectacularly poor season, and it has only gotten worse as the season has worn on, losing by a combined 148-34 over their last three contests.

In Colorado’s last outing, they were steamrolled by Washington, 54-7, and failed to cover as 30 ½ point road dogs. Sophomore quarterback, J.T. Shrout, was 6-of-18 but connected on a 69-yard bomb to Montana Lemonious-Craig for Colorado’s only score of the game.


Total Trends

  • Over is 5-0 in the Buffaloes’ last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-0-1 in the Buffaloes’ last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-1-1 in the Buffaloes’ last 8 games following an ATS loss.
  • Over is 6-2 in the Utes’ last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Utes’ last 6 games following a straight-up loss.

How Will The Game Play Out?

I don’t know at what point I would take a dare and bet my hard-earned cash on a team as woefully inept as the Buffaloes, but getting a 29½ point head start still won’t move the needle. Of course, I am as square as a microwave and in lockstep with the betting public, but what choice do I have?

Colorado has lost by 30 points or more to Air Force, Minnesota, Oregon State, Oregon, USC, and Washington. I can’t help but think that Utah is in the same classy company as the latter three, which means the Utes should be in for a cakewalk.

But that’s the only issue here. Sometimes it’s too easy and the team doing the thumping takes their foot off the gas, leading to a backdoor cover by a much less talented team. That’s about the only way I see the Buffaloes covering in this one.

Utah has covered in five of their last six meetings with Colorado, but this is the biggest disparity in talent between the two schools in a very long time. Consider for a moment that Utah ranks 16th in points scored, averaging 37.3 points per game, and they will face Colorado’s 131st-ranked defense, surrendering nearly 43 points per game.

Conversely, Colorado scores an average of 14.9 points per game (127th) versus a Utah defense ranked 24th in the nation, allowing exactly 20 points per game.

The Picks

So, let’s put this in a blender and determine whether or not Colorado can even sniff a cover. If the Buffaloes average 14.9 points per game, what can we surmise they will score against a superior, although not truly elite, defense? Maybe 10 points?

Now, how many points will Utah score on one of the very worst defenses in all of college football? Well, the Utes are averaging over 37 points per game but against a hellacious defense like Colorado, would it surprise anyone if they rang up 50?

Well, now we not only have a solid selection in a big road favorite but we’ve arrived at our predicted score…50-10. That’s an easy cover and a total that appears to be headed over a somewhat modest number.

Score Prediction: Utah 50 - Colorado 10

NCAAF Pick: Utah -29½ (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Utah -29½ (-110)
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NCAAF Pick: Over 52 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Over 52 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.