Utah vs. Oregon NCAAF Week 12 Top Picks: Pac-12 Powerhouses Clash on Saturday Night

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Cameron Rising #7 of the Utah Utes throws a pass under pressure from Nick Figueroa #99 of the USC Trojans. Chris Gardner/ Getty Images/AFP.

A Pac-12 Saturday night showdown is in the offing this week as the Utes travel to Eugene to take on Oregon.

Let’s check out the NCAAF odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our college football picks!

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Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 10:30 PM EST at Autzen Stadium

A ticket to the Pac-12 championship is what is likely at stake in this contest between two of the top three conference contenders.

With USC perched atop the Pac-12, boasting a 7-1 conference record, Oregon and Utah are in the Trojans’ rearview mirror with 6-1 marks. The winner will almost certainly get a crack at the conference crown.


Impressive Utes

Utah has now won four straight including last Saturday’s blowout win over Stanford. The Utes checked in as 23 ½ point home chalk and they did not disappoint their fans or those who backed them at the best sportsbooks. When the dust settled, Utah claimed a 42-7 victory and sent the Cardinal to the bottom of the Pac-12 basement.

Cameron Rising connected on 20-of-33 with 219 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception while Tavion Thomas was unstoppable, chewing up 180 rushing yards on 22 carries with two trips to the end zone.

Utah’s rushing attack punished Stanford for 279 yards while the defense paralyzed the Cardinal run game, limiting them to only 22 yards on the day.

Sitting Ducks

Oregon had an opportunity to enter the CFP conversation with a win last week that would have moved them to 9-1 on the season. But instead, they fell, 37-34, to No. 25 Washington as 12-point home favorites, sending them tumbling from No. 6 to No. 12 in the nation.

The Ducks held a 7-point lead with less than four minutes remaining but the Huskies countered with a quick-strike touchdown followed by a 43-yard field goal with under a minute left in the contest. But the real story was Washington’s prolific passer, Michael Penix Jr., who torched the Ducks’ secondary for 408 passing yards.

Bo Nix ended with 280 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns while Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington were immense running the rock gaining 143 and 108 yards, respectively. Oregon posted a team rushing total of 312 yards but it was still not enough to win the day.

After the game, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said, "Well, certainly not the result we had hoped for. I think our guys played the entire game. They certainly didn't quit, didn't throw in the towel. You have to give Washington credit; they played a complete game and we made more mistakes at the end of the game that hurt us."


Total Trends

  • Over is 5-1 in the Utes’ last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Utes’ last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 8-2 in the Utes’ last 10 road games.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Ducks’ last 4 games following an ATS loss.
  • Over is 6-0 in the Ducks’ last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Ducks’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Oregon.

Team Trends

  • Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Utes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
  • Ducks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Utah vs. Oregon: Pick and Prediction

The Utes won both meetings last year including the Pac-12 Championship in which Utah easily defeated the Ducks, 38-10, and covered as 3-point home favorites. And while I highly doubt this matchup will be that easy, I am siding with Utah as a road dog in this one.

Both teams own dynamic rushing attacks with Utah ranked 18th, averaging 210.5 yards per game while Oregon ranks 9th averaging 239.3 yards per contest. Similarly, both rushing defenses are stout with Oregon again owning a slight advantage with their 17th versus Utah’s 26th-ranked unit.

But this tale will be told through the air. Although Bo Nix leads the 19th-ranked passing attack in the nation, the Utes own a very good pass defense. But when you flip the script, Utah brings a solid passing game to the table averaging over 252 yards per game and Oregon is lousy at defending the pass, permitting nearly 290 yards on average which places them 127th in that category.

We should also recall that Bo Nix limped off the field last week, so how healthy will he be for this one? I believe the Utes win this one outright but I will grab the field goal head start over at BetOnline and go over the posted total.

Score Prediction: Utah 34 – Oregon 31

NCAAF Pick: Utah +3 (-106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Utah +3 (-106)
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NCAAF Pick: Over 61 ½ (-115) at BetOnline

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Over 61 ½ (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.