UAB vs. LSU NCAAF Week 12 Pick & Prediction: Tigers Clawing Their Way to CFP Invitation

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Jarrick Bernard-Converse #24 of the LSU Tigers celebrates an interception during the first half against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images/AFP

LSU sits atop the SEC West, ranked No. 6 in the nation, and has its sights set on breaking through to the Top 4 and securing a CFP bid but can UAB derail their plans?

Let’s review the college football odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our college football picks!

UAB Blazers vs. LSU Tigers

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST at Tiger Stadium

UAB is 5-5 on the season and nestled in the middle of the pack in Conference USA. However, they will be taking a quantum leap in class this Saturday when they meet one of the best teams in the nation down in Baton Rouge.

In their last outing, the Blazers snapped a three-game skid with a 41-21 victory over North Texas as 6½ point home favorites. DeWayne McBride set a single-season school record with 17 rushing touchdowns on the season, including three in the win over North Texas.

He and Jermaine Brown Jr. combined for 270 rushing yards, while quarterback Dylan Hopkins tossed for 231 yards, including a two-yard flare to Trea Shropshire that put the Blazers in front for good late in the third quarter. UAB moved to 5-1 at home with the victory.

Tigers Ready to Roar

The season is in the home stretch, and if anyone doubted the wisdom of paying Brian Kelly a fortune to pry him from the clutches of the Golden Dome, they are doubting no more. LSU had gone from a national champion just a few years ago to a 6-7 team in 2021 that delivered a lackluster performance in the Texas Bowl in which they bowed, 42-20, to Kansas State.

But after a 24-23 loss to Florida State in their season opener, the Tigers have sharpened their claws and have defeated every opponent since that time, except for a 40-13 loss to powerhouse Tennessee in the middle of the season.

Two of LSU’s last four wins have come against top 10 opponents in No. 7 Ole Miss and an epic 32-31 overtime win against No. 6 Alabama.

About Last Week

In their last effort, the Tigers' offense was stuck in neutral, but they still eked out a road 13-10 win over a gritty Arkansas team. The defense was the star of the show, limiting Arkansas to just 249 combined yards, the fewest total yards from an SEC opponent in three years.

It was not a dominating win by any stretch, nor did they cover the 5½ point impost, but it kept them hovering around the CFP bubble, at least for another week.

"I didn't put any wins or losses on this team," coach Kelly said. "I put, ‘I want to play hard, I want to be better in November, I want to teach them how to win'. I think we've hit all of those markers, and that's kind of where I wanted this program to be. I think we're at where we should be at this time."

Team Trends

  • Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games
  • Tigers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November
  • Tigers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss
  • Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up win
  • Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC
  • Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games

Total Trends

  • Under is 5-1 in the Blazers’ last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game
  • Under is 5-1 in the Blazers’ last 6 non-conference games
  • Under is 6-0 in the Tigers’ last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game
  • Under is 4-0 in the Tigers’ last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game

UAB vs. LSU: Pick and Prediction

The line is tricky here because I like LSU to win this game handily, especially with so much at stake as they prepare for Texas A&M next week and the SEC title game against Georgia following that one. However, I also like the under in this game as well, which would fly in the face of conventional wisdom that a double-digit favorite covering would also have the game go over.

Nevertheless, UAB is 0-4 straight up and against the spread on the road this season and now they have to step way up in class to meet the Tigers at home.

Conversely, LSU is 5-1 straight up and ATS at home and against a team whose only strength is running the ball, this looks like an easy cover in what should be a low-scoring game.

Score Prediction: LSU 34 – UAB 13

NCAAF Pick: LSU -14½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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LSU -14½ (-108)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 52½ (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 52½ (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.