Knowledge is power, so brush up on what’s happening with this week’s college football bowl games before you make your NCAAF picks.
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Information rules the nation. If you read our early college football bowl preview in this space, you learned about how the UTSA Roadrunners were short-handed for their Cure Bowl matchup with the Troy Trojans; Troy won 18-12 and covered as 3.5-point underdogs on the closing line.
You also learned about how the SMU Mustangs had the Under at 5-1 in their last six bowl games. Sure enough, the Mustangs lost 24-23 (Under 64.5) to the BYU Cougars at the New Mexico Bowl. In fact, all five bowls we previewed went as expected given the trends and injuries, plus all the players (and coaches) who have bailed on their teams for various reasons.
With that in mind, there are eight more bowl games to play between press time and Christmas Day, so let’s take a closer look at five of those bowls and see if our latest news and notes will have any impact on our college football picks.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: These Eagles Don’t Fly
Congratulations to the Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) for winning eight games for the first time since 1987. However, these Eagles aren’t as good as their record would suggest, and they both lost and failed to cover each of their last four bowl games. All the more reason to take the San Jose State Spartans (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) as 3.5-point favorites on the NCAAF odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
Why so down on Eastern Michigan? Sports Reference has the Eagles at minus-8.23 on their Simple Rating System, lower than all four EMU teams that went bowling for head coach Chris Creighton. San Jose State checked in at minus-1.91 SRS, so all other things being equal, they’re the obvious choice for the Spud Bowl.
Boca Raton Bowl: Finn Is Fine
We’ve already dug deep and peeled back the layers for Tuesday’s festivities in Boca Raton; having interim head coach Josh Aldridge leading Liberty into battle instead of the departed Hugh Freeze (now with Auburn) should help the Under cash in, and go figure, the total at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) has dipped from 54.5 to 53 since we made our NCAAF picks.
But what about the spread? There may have been some value on Toledo when they opened at –1, but now that QB DeQuan Finn has re-discovered his form after missing most of November with a sore ankle, the Rockets are –3.5 at press time. That’s still a plausibly tight line; Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today has Toledo winning by 3.76 points using his “Rating” formula.
Independence Bowl: Cardinal Sin
This is a horrible spot for the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS). Starting QB Ben Wooldridge was lost for the season after Week 12 due to a freak lower-leg injury in practice; they still won their season-finale to become bowl eligible, with former starter Chandler Fields back under center, but there’s no question Wooldridge has been the better of the two pivots this year.
Meanwhile, the Houston Cougars (7-5 SU, 4-8 ATS) got some good news when WR Nathaniel Dell decided to play in the Independence Bowl despite declaring for the 2023 NFL Draft. Dell led the Cougars with 103 catches for 1,354 yards and 15 touchdowns, and his presence makes Houston a fairly easy choice as 7-point favorites on the NCAAF odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).
Gasparilla Bowl: Mizzou Goes Under
There will be several missing players for both the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Missouri Tigers at Friday’s Gasparilla Bowl, but we’re more interested in this betting trend: Each of Missouri’s last three bowl games went Under the posted total.
Having said that, it will help our cause that the Tigers (Under 8-4) will be without RB Christian Turner, and the Deacs (Under 7-5) won’t have WR Dominic Lovett, after both gentlemen entered the transfer portal. And it’s supposed to rain over Raymond James Stadium until around noon Friday, although this game is a 6:30 PM ET start. It looks like a decent spot to go Under 59.5 at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review); kudos if you bought in at the open when the total was 63.5.
Hawaii Bowl: It’s Over for Blue Raiders
We wrap up in Honolulu, where the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Over 7-5) will try to make it six straight bowl games for the Over when they face the San Diego State Aztecs (Under 7-5) this Saturday. It should be a warm one as well with temperatures around 80 degrees and no precipitation in the forecast. Hammer that 49-point total at Heritage accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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