The FBS bowl season has descended into chaos. Protect your college football picks with our round-up of key betting trends and injuries.
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You can’t tell the players without a program. Seriously; if you’re not aware of all the roster changes for this weekend’s early bowl games, you’re going to be in for a surprise and your college football picks are going to suffer.
The betting market for these games is different, too. There are way more casual bettors throwing their money at the NCAAF odds board than there were during the regular season; again, if you’re not aware of the bowl-specific betting trends for this weekend’s games, you’re missing out.
This is why everyone here at the ranch has been busy putting together this list of 5 important trends and injury notes for Friday and Saturday. There’s plenty more where that came from, but this should give your NCAAF betting odyssey a good kick-start.
Cure Bowl: San Antonio Shuffle
This has been a rough year for the UTSA Roadrunners (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS). They have lost a number of quality players to season-ending injuries, including the following:
- S Rashad Wisdom
- WR De’Corian Clark
- OT Makai Hart
- OT Demetris Allen
- DT Brandon Matterson
On top of that, the Roadrunners have 3 more important players listed as questionable for Friday’s matchup with the Troy Trojans (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS):
- RB Brenden Brady
- RB Trelon Smith
- TE Gavin Sharp
There’s a good chance Smith will be back in the lineup Friday, as will LB Dru Prox, but Brady and Sharp are very much in question after getting hurt during UTSA’s 34-31 win over UTEP (+16.5 away) in Week 13.
We’re also hearing some buzz that poor academic grades could sideline some other Roadrunner players for the Cure Bowl. Nothing’s confirmed either way on that front as we go to press, but more should be known Friday before kick-off.
New Mexico Bowl: Mustangs Going Under
The Southern Methodist Mustangs (Under 7-5) have a well-earned reputation as an offensive juggernaut with virtually no stopping power.
That imbalance has only gotten more extreme under first-year head coach Rhett Lashlee, a former quarterback at Arkansas and offensive coordinator for multiple big-name programs, most recently the Miami Hurricanes.
And yet the Under is 5-1 in SMU’s last 6 bowl games dating back to 2009, which is all the games they’ve played since receiving the “death penalty” in 1987.
It’s a trend that covers 5 different head coaches, from Lashlee all the way back to June Jones. And it could come into play again this Saturday when the Mustangs take on the BYU Cougars (Over 8-4) at the New Mexico Bowl.
Las Vegas Bowl: Running Beaver
Two teams will collide this Saturday at the Las Vegas Bowl, but only one team will be relatively intact.
The Oregon State Beavers (9-3 SU, 10-2 ATS) expect to have RB Damien Martinez in uniform after he got hurt during their “Civil War” win over Oregon, although CB Rejzohn Wright is confirmed out following thumb surgery.
The Florida Gators (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS), on the other hand, are a shell of their former selves. QB Anthony Richardson opted out to protect himself for the NFL Draft, leaving third-stringer Jack Miller III to make his first start for the Gators.
WR Justin Shorter, OL O’Cyrus Torrence, and LB Ventrell Miller have also opted out; DL Gervon Dexter will play Saturday despite declaring for the draft.
LA Bowl: Wazzup With Wazzu
There’s something about the Washington State Cougars (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) that just doesn’t seem to translate during bowl season.
They have dropped the cash in each of their last 5 bowl games, with only 1 straight-up victory at the 2018 Alamo Bowl.
The first 4 ATS losses were under former head coach Mike Leach, who was in charge at Mississippi State before passing away Monday because of a heart condition.
The 5th was at last year’s Sun Bowl after Jake Dickert had taken over for Nick Rolovich mid-season. Dickert has yet to suffer the same controversies that dogged his predecessors, but given the overall weakness of the Pac-12, the Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) are in good shape to take advantage at Saturday’s LA Bowl.
LendingTree Bowl: Rice Isn’t Nice
Lastly, a heads-up on the Rice Owls (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS), who have 3 very important skill players listed as questionable for Saturday’s LendingTree Bowl bout with the Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6 SU, 8-3-1 ATS):
- QB Wiley Green
- QB T.J. McMahon
- WR Luke McCaffrey
While we’re waiting for updates on all 3 gentlemen, word has it that freshman AJ Padgett will likely be under center for Rice in this matchup. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
*The line and/or odds in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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