After another successful round of college football picks, here are five more things to pay attention to before this week’s bowl games.
Timing is everything when you’re making college football picks. If you followed last week’s NCAAF betting trends and injuries report, the trends pointed at the Hawaii Bowl going Over, and the Houston Cougars winning the Independence Bowl ATS. And that’s exactly what happened—if you waited until closer to kick-off before placing your bets.
Meanwhile, the Boca Raton Bowl and the Gasparilla Bowl went comfortably Under, which means those plucky Eastern Michigan Eagles were the only team who managed to overcome both history and the closing NCAAF odds by beating San Jose State at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
So what does history have in store for this week’s bowl games? We’re down to the nitty-gritty; these next seven days (next Monday included) include all the Big Six bowls, leaving us with just the National Championship Game on January 9—and the various All-Star games, but that’s a whole other animal.
Let’s see what the trends and injuries for this particular fivesome can teach us.
Pinstripe Bowl: Feeling Minnesota
The models suggest there isn’t much value on either side of Thursday’s Pinstripe Bowl with the Minnesota Golden Gophers priced as 10-point favorites at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), up from -7 when the college football odds first hit the board. But history says otherwise; the Gophers have swept their last five bowl games SU and ATS, including all three under head coach P.J. Fleck.
The key for Minnesota here is RB Mohamed Ibrahim, who will see plenty of action regardless of whether starting QB Tanner Morgan (upper-body injury) is deemed well enough to play. On the flip side, the Syracuse Orange will be without star RB Sean Tucker (opt-out), as well as offensive coordinator Robert Anae (now at North Carolina State) and defensive coordinator Tony White (now at Nebraska).
Sun Bowl: Bad News for Pitt Fans
There’s something about bowl season that doesn’t agree with the Pittsburgh Panthers. They’re just 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 bowls, and 1-3 SU and ATS since Pat Narduzzi took over the program in 2015.
If that weren’t bad enough, Pitt will be without All-American DT Calijah Kancey this Friday when they take on the UCLA Bruins at the Sun Bowl. Kancey, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, is still recovering from shoulder surgery and decided to opt out for the NFL Draft. QB Kedon Slovis is also unavailable for the Panthers after transferring to BYU.
Texan bettors can use one of these Texas betting sites to bet on the Sun Bowl this Friday.
Orange Bowl: A Very Bulldogs Under
We’ve already recommended putting the Under in your NCAAF picks for Saturday’s Peach Bowl matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Georgia Bulldogs, but we thought this game was worth revisiting so we can tell you that Georgia has driven the Under to the pay window in each of their last five bowl games.
We’re also still waiting for an injury update on Bulldogs WR Ladd McConkey and OT Warren McClendon, but head coach Kirby Smart did say he hopes both players will be available. Still no word yet on Ohio State RG Matt Jones.
Cotton Bowl: No Williams, No Cover for USC?
Given that Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy and all, you’d think we’d have a continuously refreshed update on his status for next Monday’s Cotton Bowl—kind of like the Showa emperor during his last days.
As far as we can tell, Williams remains uncertain to quarterback the USC Trojans, but we do have updates on three of his teammates, and all of them will be out:
- WR Jordan Addison
- OL Andrew Vorhees
- C Brett Neilon
If that isn’t enough music to the ears of the Tulane Green Wave, how about this tune: The Trojans are 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games. This will be their first with Lincoln Riley at the helm, but even if you look past that trend, this is clearly a tough spot for USC.
Citrus Bowl: Boiling Over at Purdue
When you think offense, you naturally think of the Purdue Boilermakers. Okay, maybe you don’t; Purdue’s offense finished No. 39 on this year’s F+ charts at Football Outsiders. But the Boilers have somehow managed to drive the Over to the pay window in six straight bowl games.
It might take a miracle for them to make it seven. Purdue will be severely short-handed at next Monday’s Citrus Bowl versus the LSU Tigers; head coach Jeff Brohm bailed to take the same job at Louisville, and QB Aidan O’Connell is one of several Boilermakers who have decided to sit this one out. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
Sunshine State locals interested in betting on the Citrus bowl can do so at one of these Florida betting sites.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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