Texas vs. Kansas St. NCAAF Week 10 Top Picks: Elimination Game in Big 12 Race

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Xavier Worthy #8 of the Texas Longhorns scores a 12-yard touchdown past cornerback Cam Smith #3 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Brian Bahr/Getty Images/AFP.

A huge game in the Big 12 is part of the Week 10 college football betting fixture as the Texas Longhorns head north to visit the Kansas State Wildcats.

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Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Saturday, November 05, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium

Some teams were overrated and a few teams were underrated by the experts who predicted the Big 12 race this season, and that has ed to what is essentially an elimination game this week when the Texas Longhorns travel to take on the Kansas State Wildcats.

Texas was supposed to be embroiled in a battle with Oklahoma according to the preseason college football futures, but the Longhorns suffered their second league loss the last time out and are looking to avoid their third consecutive season with 3+ conference losses.

Kansas State was seen as middle-of-the-pack before the campaign started, and the Wildcats kept their name in the mix with a huge win last week to stay on pace for the Big 12 Championship.


Cowboys Last Opponent for UT, KSU

Texas was off last week, meaning the Longhorns had two weeks to stew over their 41-34 setback at Oklahoma State where the Cowboys were getting 6½ on the NCAA football odds at most reputable shops.

That contest filled up Twitter with postgame comments about how the Longhorns were penalized 14 times while the Cowboys officially recorded zero flags, the conspiracy theories running wild. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian also took heat from his alum for his team not hanging around long enough to sing the school song after the game.

There certainly wasn’t any help for Oklahoma State from the referee crew this past Saturday when the Cowboys suffered a first class whipping in a 48-0 loss to Kansas State. The Wildcats were mere 2-point favorites.

Oklahoma State was simply trying to stay on TCU’s tail before Kansas State all but eliminated the Cowboys from the conference championship, and the Wildcats were coming off a loss of their own to TCU in what has truly been a wacky conference race from week to week.


Will K-State Have Martinez Under Center?

Kansas State’s rout of Oklahoma State caught most by surprise, but what made it even more shocking was the fact it came with the Wildcats having backup quarterback Will Howard on the field in place of Adrian Martinez who was ruled out due to a bruised knee.

Martinez suffered the injury early in the loss to TCU the previous week, and coach Chris Klieman continues to list Martinez “day-to-day” on reports this week. Texas enters the game without any new injuries to report for the matchup.

Horns Seeking 6th-Straight Win in Series

Texas and Kansas State have been Big 12 cousins for 28 years, but they only started playing annually in 2010 and the Longhorns hold a 7-5 edge since then. All-time, Texas is up 12-10 after winning the last five meetings.

Thought the Longhorns have win the last five, four of those contests were 1-score affairs like a year ago in Austin where they clamped down on defense to hold the Wildcats scoreless in the second half in a 22-17 final that closed with Texas backers laying a field goal.

  • The Longhorns embarrassed the Wildcats in Manhattan two years ago, 69-31 in a matchup that almost doubled-up the total.
  • Kansas State’s last win came at home in 2016, a 24-21 final that closed with the Wildcats getting a point at the best online sportsbooks.
  • Three of the last four meetings in Manhattan failed to reach the totals.

A Cool, Wet Evening in the Little Apple Weather could be a factor in the all-important matchup, with the forecast calling for a 60% chance of rain in the area along with a 10-15 mph blow from the southwest and the thermometer sitting in the upper-50s at kickoff.


The Odds and The Pick

A quick check of the board finds BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) currently favoring Texas by 2½ points, and the added juice on a Longhorns wager suggests that number could move quickly to an even field goal margin, if not possibly go higher.

Depending on where one shops for their lines, the scoreboard target for Saturday night’s skirmish is running 54-54½.

These are two of the tougher defenses in the Big 12 to score on, Kansas State ranking second at 17.3 PPG while Texas is third at 21.1 PPG, so a play on the final stopping short of the total is the first of two college football picks.

The second play will be a quick wager on the Longhorns before the spread moves higher. Texas stays alive in the Big 12 with a 24-20 win in Manhattan.

NCAAF Pick: Texas -2½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Texas -2½ (-108)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 54½ (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Under 54½ (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.