Texas A&M vs. LSU College Football Week 13 Expert Betting Analysis

profile image of Jason.Lake
063_1345764504-aspect-ratio-16-9
Max Johnson #14 of the LSU Tigers. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

The Texas A&M Aggies should beat the LSU Tigers this Saturday, but can they beat the college football odds in Baton Rouge?  

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Louisiana State Tigers 

Saturday, November 27, 2021 – 07:00 PM EST at Tiger Stadium

Saturday’s SEC matchup between the Texas A&M Aggies (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) and LSU Tigers (5-6 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) isn’t entirely meaningless. The Tigers need a win in their final regular-season game to be bowl eligible, and hey, it’s Senior Week in Baton Rouge. Texas A&M will also want a victory here to lock down a berth in a relatively important bowl game, like the Citrus Bowl, and not the (ugh) Duke’s Mayo Bowl. 

This creates a very interesting dynamic for our Week 13 college football picks. The projections say LSU are the right choice as 6.5-point home dogs (with a very friendly +103 vigorish) on the NCAAF odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

However, the early consensus reports show 94 percent support for Texas A&M. And the Tigers are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS since they announced they’d be parting ways with head coach Ed Orgeron at the end of the season. Harrumph. 

Goodbye Mr. Ed 

The Orgeron situation definitely takes some of the fun out of Senior Week. It also illustrates how important passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach Ed Brady (now the offensive coordinator with the Carolina Panthers) was to their 2019 championship season – not to mention Joe Burrow, their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback.

Things have gone south since Brady and Burrow left for the NFL. With sophomore QB Max Johnson at the controls, the Tigers have fallen to No. 66 on the Week 12 offensive SP+ charts at ESPN.

They’ve also tumbled to No. 57 on defense, thanks in part to the season-ending shoulder injury suffered by All-American CB Eli Ricks. His surgery was quickly followed by Orgeron losing his job, and not coincidentally, reports just coming down the wire at press time have Ricks going into the transfer portal. It was good while it lasted. 

‘Bama Lamb 

This hasn’t been the easiest of years for Texas A&M, but they’ve done something few other teams have: Beat the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Aggies slipped past Alabama 41-38 back in Week 6 as 18.5-point home dogs, the start of a 5-1 SU and ATS run that has them in prime position to play a truly meaningful bowl game on New Year’s Day.

The Aggies also have a proven quality coach in Jimbo Fisher, who probably won’t be leaving College Station anytime soon, probably. 

Then you have sophomore QB, Zach Calzada. He was pressed into service after Haynes King broke his leg in Week 2; for the most part, Calzada’s level of play has improved as the season has worn on. Add it all up, and the Aggies are No. 5 overall (No. 28 offense, No. 8 defense) on this weeks' SP+ charts, well above their No. 14 spot in the polls. We’ll buy that for a dollar. 

NCAAF Pick: Texas A&M –6.5 (–110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Texas A&M –6.5  (–110)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.