There are upsets every single week in college football, and that is where bettors tend to find the most value. While huge moneyline upsets are not as frequent, the payouts can be massive with just how far the spread is.
For example in Week 4, Arkansas pulled off a shocking 20-10 win against Texas A&M and N.C. State held firm at home as they upset Clemson, 27-17. Looking ahead to Week 5, there are quite a few massive underdogs that would be seismic upsets should they win.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins
Friday, October 01, 2021 – 08:00 PM EDT at Maryland Stadium
Iowa is justly favored in this matchup due to their more impressive resume, program significance compared to Maryland, and reliable identity. But someone still feels like Maryland has earned close to a three-point line. Their statistical profile has been incredible to view, even if it has come against lower competition.
Expecting Maryland’s efficiency to continue versus Iowa is not wise, but this offense does have enough playmaking to threaten the Hawkeyes in ways only Indiana could. The difference is Taulia Tagovailoa has been more accurate and consistent than Michael Penix.
I like Iowa to cover, but laying a partial unit on Maryland to win outright could pay off nicely.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson
Saturday, October 02, 2021 - 03:30 PM EDT at Bryant-Denny Stadium
Everyone knows the best chance to beat Alabama only comes with a dual-threat quarterback. Ole Miss has a smart, crafty play-caller in Lane Kiffin and a plethora of offensive weapons. Nick Saban’s defense has taken a leap this season but they don’t have the stars able to completely reign in Heisman’s favorite Matt Corral.
Of course, I don’t see how Ole Miss gets consistent stops on Alabama either. The Rebels have the nation’s top-scoring offense and 50th-ranked defense. It’s not out of the question they pull the upset but some unlikely turnovers and special teams plays must go their way.
For my college football picks, I like the cover and under since huge games tend to not go over 75.
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss +14.5 (-116) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Under 79 (-108) at BetOnline
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, October 02, 2021 - 06:00 PM EDT at Kroger Field
This is the moneyline to play if you’re going to bet hard on an upset. The public is hammering the Gators after they barely lost to Alabama. But digging deeper into their profile and that game shows this team has several vulnerabilities that Kentucky can exploit.
Wildcats quarterback Will Levis is the key. The big-armed quarterback must go for the jugular as he attacks passing windows, and be unafraid of mistakes.
Florida’s offense will only rely on the ground game, and they’re great at it, but Kentucky’s defense has the potential to slow them if they’re disciplined.
NCAAF Pick: Kentucky +8 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.