There are upsets every single week in college football, and that is where bettors tend to find the most value. While huge money line upsets are not as frequent, the payouts can be massive with just how far the spread is.
For example in Week 4, Arkansas pulled off a shocking 20-10 win against Texas A&M, and N.C. State held firm at home as they upset Clemson, 27-17. Looking ahead to Week 7, there are quite a few massive underdogs that would be seismic upsets should they win.
Here is a look at our best-upset NCAAF picks for Week 7. While these are not likely to hit, there is some value to consider given the prices.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 16, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Texas must be stewing as they wait for their chance to avenge one of the most insane losses we've seen in years. The Longhorns were the better team against Oklahoma until the backup quarterback to the presumed top pick in the 2022 NFL draft came in and played the game of his life. Texas can't allow the Red River rivalry to define their season.
Oklahoma State is good enough to win this game, but only if Texas is sloppy and hands them multiple opportunities. I think Texas responds with a big game from Bijan Robinson and this offense. Unlike Oklahoma, the Cowboys don't have the firepower to hang in.
UCF Knights vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Saturday, October 16, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at Nippert Stadium
The combined point margin for these teams' last two games is three points. UCF isn't nearly as good as they usually are due to injuries to Dillon Gabriel and a host of others, but the program takes this game seriously. Cincinnati knows what's at stake, but this is a lot of points against a rival.
The Bearcats will win this game, but this represents the last tough game until SMU on November 20. I think they grind out a quality home win that lacks flash. My lack of faith that Desmond Ridder will play his best game and avoid mistakes or end drives also plays into my hesitance of giving so many points against Gus Malzahn's Knights.
NCAAF Pick: UCF +21 (-110) at BetOnline
California Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks
Friday, October 15, 2021 - 10:30 PM EDT at Autzen Stadium
Oregon is a good team, but they're not the team that blew out Ohio State in Week 2 every single game. The Ducks have come back down to Earth a bit and lost star tailback CJ Verdell to a season-ending injury. Cal is going to get into their faces and force a defensive struggle.
Cal may find surprising success throwing the ball despite their identity for years as an offense that couldn't move the ball through the air. Oregon has a bottom-20 pass defense and doesn't get off the field effectively. Cal is 54th in passing yards and 46th in yards per play.
Cal is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year and last week's bye should help them devise an effective game plan. This will be low-scoring and uncomfortable for Oregon as they look to avenge their shocking loss to Stanford. Cal covers, Oregon wins, and the total hits the under. Those are the NCAAF odds.
NCAAF Pick: Cal +13.5 (-110) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Under 53 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.