TCU vs. Texas NCAAF Week 11 Betting Preview: Big 12 Showdown in Austin

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Kendre Miller #33 of the TCU Horned Frogs reacts following his game-winning touchdown run against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP.

After checking our top-rated sportsbooks, we’ve got a free NCAA football pick for a Saturday night showdown between ranked teams in the Lone Star State where the TCU Horned Frogs meet the Texas Longhorns.

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TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Ever since they first got together on a gridiron 125 years ago, Texas has dominated TCU. That has started to change in recent years, and the Horned Frogs can really make a statement in this week’s Big 12 showdown with the Longhorns.

This year’s matchup in Austin truly has taken on the feel of the Gunfight at OK Corral, with the Horned Frogs playing the part of the good guys in search of a spot in the College Football Playoffs while the Longhorns are in the role of the bad guys.

Texas Chalked in 3rd Straight Matchup

It’s the bad guys in the black hats, actually, they’re orange, who are favored in the 93rd meeting between the Longhorns and Horned Frogs.

Texas is a consensus -7 favorite for prime-time kickoff with 65 for the total.

More Than Half of Big 12 Still in Championship Picture

Texas Christian may be all alone on top of the conference race, but the Horned Frogs’ perch in the Big 12 standings is anything but lonely despite holding a 2-game advantage over a trio of teams with two losses.

Texas is joined by Baylor and Kansas State as the squads sporting two defeats. Even Oklahoma and Kansas with their 3-3 league records aren’t out of it, though the Sooners and Jayhawks would need a lot of help to make the Big 12 Championship Game.

Late Bursts Secure TCU’s Last 3 Wins

Reaching a 9-0 record overall, and No. 4 ranking in the latest AP and coaches poll, hasn’t been easy for Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs, but it has been a profitable run for bettors following them with a 7-1-1 mark against the spread.

One glance at the last three games might lead some to think TCU had a relatively easy time of things with successive 10-point victories over Kansas State, at West Virginia, and home against Texas Tech this past weekend. Not so.

The Horned Frogs trailed Kansas State 28-17 at halftime before rallying in a 38-28 final. They only held a 3-point lead late at West Virginia before winning 41-31, and they trailed 17-13 against Texas Tech entering the fourth quarter before coming away with a 34-24 dubya.

‘Horns Survive at K-State

After dropping a game in Week 8 at Oklahoma State where they were favored by a field goal at the best online betting sites, the Longhorns came out of their bye week looking refreshed and strong as they built a 31-10 halftime lead this last week at Kansas State.

Texas almost let another one slip away before holding on for a 34-27 win over the Wildcats.

The Longhorns needed a late Kansas State turnover to make that happen and not waste a huge day for tailback Bijan Robinson (30 carries, 209 yards).

Frogs Have Covered 4 of Last 6 Meetings

Texas has current bragging rights after an exciting 32-27 win in Ft. Worth a year ago, and the Longhorns have a huge advantage over the history of the series by winning 64 of the 92 contests, including two dozen in a row from 1968-1991 in the old Southwest Conference.

Though they were favored by 4 a year ago at TCU, the Longhorns’ 32-27 victory was something of an upset considering Texas went deep into the tank following that game by dropping its next six contests to fall short of a bowl game for the first time since 2016.

  • Going back 10 seasons, seven of the last 10 collisions between TCU and Texas stopped short of the totals on the NCAA football odds.
  • The Horned Frogs have won four of their last five trips to Austin.
  • Covers have been split 5-5 between underdogs and favorites in the last 10.

TCU Leading WR Dealing with Injury

The Horned Frogs could be without Quentin Johnston on Saturday. Johnston, who leads TCU in receptions (42) and receiving yards (650) injured an ankle early in last week’s win over Texas Tech, and is showing up as day-to-day at this time.

Cool and Damp Forecast

After seeing temperatures climb into the 80s early in the week, Mother Nature is expected to deal Austin and the rest of Central Texas with a cool front just before the weekend arrives, with rain showers in the Saturday morning outlook and temps in the upper-40s at kickoff.

Who Will Be Best at Protecting the Pigskin?

One thing that TCU has done better than all but three other teams this year is not giving the ball away. The Horned Frogs have turned it over just six times, and if they can avoid the giveaways, they’re the play to cover if not win outright.

NCAAF Pick: TCU +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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TCU +7 (-108)
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