TCU vs. Baylor NCAAF Week 12 Betting Preview: Can Bears Spoil the Horned Frogs’ Playoff Hopes?

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Quentin Johnston #1 of the TCU Horned Frogs reacts after a touchdown reception. Tim Warner/Getty Images/AFP.

Praise God and pass the pigskin! The Week 12 college football betting slate includes a contest with Big 12 and National Championship implications as TCU collides with Baylor.

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TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at McLane Stadium

When they were neighbors in Waco more than 100 years ago, the TCU and Baylor football teams would get together several times per season, but there won’t be anything neighborly about the meeting between the Horned Frogs and Bears when they meet Waco this Saturday.

No sir, don’t let the private Christian charters both schools possess lull you into thinking the matchup between TCU and Baylor will be anything but good old-fashioned smashmouth football, with the Horned Frogs putting their unbeaten record on the line and the Bears looking to be the spoilers.

TCU Backers Laying a Field Goal

And don’t be fooled into believing the early start time for the FOX telecast means those tailgaters at McLane Stadium will only have coffee or sweet tea in their cups, as they ramp things up for the 118th gridiron meeting between the schools.

After officially opening as 1.5-point favorites, early action on the Horned Frogs pushed the spread up to -3 at most of the best sportsbooks where the scoreboard target is running 56.5-57.

TCU Shows They Can Also Play Defense

Underdogs of 7.5 points when the window closed at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) this past Saturday night, the Horned Frogs earned a 17-10 win over Texas in a prime-time showdown that served as the first FCS game this season to feature a pair of 1,000-yard rushers to oppose one another.

While TCU’s defense was busy stuffing Longhorn tailback Bijan Robinson and holding him to just 29 yards on 12 carries, Kendre Miller was busy carrying the Horned Frogs on offense with 138 yards rushing on 21 totes, one of those being a 75-yard scoring romp in the third quarter.

Since joining the Big 12 in 2012, the win was TCU’s 5th in 6 trips to Austin and this one had to be especially satisfying with former Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson currently serving as a special assistant to Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian.

Baylor Suffered Lopsided Loss to K-State

Even with the loss to Kansas State this past weekend, Baylor hasn’t been officially eliminated from defending its title as Big 12 Champions, but the Bears’ chances are hanging by the slimmest of threads and in need of a lot of help.

David Aranda watched helplessly as his squad was run over and beat up by the Wildcats in front of a sellout crowd at Baylor, many of those fans making their way to the exits when Kansas State increased their lead to the 31-3 final score early in the fourth quarter.

Baylor closed as 2.5-point chalk on the NCAAF odds. The Wildcats lost starting quarterback Adrian Martinez in the first half, but backup Will Howard came on to post another solid relief effort by throwing for three scores.

Last 3 in ‘Revivalry’ Have Gone Past Totals

Longtime foes in the old Southwest Conference, this series was dormant for a while after that league folded and the Big 12 was formed, but the Horned Frogs and Bears eventually got back together and it has been a close battle with TCU owning a 57-53 lead, and 7 ties.

While TCU players are well acquainted with Romans 12:19 in the Bible, and even though none of them were around in 2014, the Horned Frogs will be out to avenge the shootout loss to Baylor that season. It was TCU’s only loss and prevented a trip to the College Football Playoffs.

  • The Horned Frogs have won the last 2 meetings and 7 of the 10 matchups as Big 12 opponents.
  • A pandemic-reduced crowd saw TCU jump out to a 30-0 lead in the first half of the 2020 meeting in Waco before Baylor made it interesting in a 33-23 final.
  • Not counting the 2018 matchup that closed as a pick, underdogs have covered the odds in 7 of the last 9.

Injuries, Mother Nature and The Pick

Considering how deep into the season we are, both sides are in very good shape on the injury front with neither TCU nor Baylor reporting any new issues from this past weekend.

The weatherman isn’t suggesting any problems as well with partly cloudy skies for Waco in the afternoon when the thermometer should rise into the 50s along with a light NE breeze.

Texas Christian has been a solid cover on the road going 4-0-1 ATS, while Baylor sits 3-2 SU and ATS at home.

Let’s back the Horned Frogs with our college football pick.

NCAAF Pick: TCU -3 (-104) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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TCU -3 (-104)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.