South Carolina vs. Florida NCAAF Week 11 Picks and Prediction: Home Finale For Gators

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Anthony Richardson #15 of the Florida Gators warms up before the start of a game against the South Florida Bulls. James Gilbert/Getty Images/AFP.

Unranked Florida can get bowl eligible with a victory in SEC action on Saturday as the Gators host South Carolina in an East Division matchup. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks

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South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Florida Gators 

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 04:00 PM EST at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

The SEC Network has this matchup. At 6-3, South Carolina already is bowl eligible, while Florida (5-4) needs one more victory. It’s also the Gators’ home finale. 

Last season, Florida was trampled 40-17 at South Carolina. Jason Brown threw for 2 touchdowns to lead South Carolina, while Kevin Harris and ZaQuandre White each rushed for over 100 yards and South Carolina's defense held the Gators to just 82 yards rushing, UF entered the game averaging 242 yards on the ground.  

Parker White had a career-best four field goals and defensive tackle Jabari Ellis had an 18-yard fumble recovery touchdown to put South Carolina up 30-10 at halftime. Emory Jones completed 17 of 30 passes for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns for UF. He also threw an interception and had a fumble that went for a score. 

Saturday will be the 43rd all-time meeting between the schools. Florida leads 29-10-3 and is 16-2 at home. Following the NCAAF odds, the road team is 6-2-1 ATS on the NCAAF picks in the past nine. 

South Carolina Having Success On Road 

Spencer Rattler

South Carolina is off a 38-27 win at Vanderbilt on Saturday. Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler threw for three touchdowns but overall has been a little disappointing in completing 64.5% of his passes for 1,823 yards, eight TDs and nine picks. He doesn’t resemble the guy who was once a Heisman Trophy favorite while at OU. 

Rattler threw a 29-yard TD pass to Xavier Legette, a 19-yard TD to Josh Vann and a 17-yard TD to Antwane Wells Jr. South Carolina scored 10 points off turnovers in the first quarter in winning its 14th in a row vs. Vandy.

South Carolina has won two SEC road games for the first time since 2018 (also at Kentucky on Oct. 8) and has had back-to-back SEC road wins in the same season for the first time since the 2012 campaign when it won at Vanderbilt and at Kentucky in their first two SEC road games. 

Top running back Marshawn Lloyd didn’t play against Vandy with a leg injury but is looking good to return this week. On defense, David Spaulding is probably going to miss the rest of the 2022 campaign. The redshirt junior corner has played in four games this season with two starts. 

Kai Kroeger

The Gamecocks have one of the better punters around in junior Kai Kroeger.

He was named the SEC’s co-Special Teams Player of the Week as he had five punts against the Commodores for a 53.6-yard average, including kicks of 69 and 66 yards, with two of his punts downed inside the 20.

Vanderbilt returned just one of the five punts for -1 yard. 

Mitch Jeter

Junior placekicker Mitch Jeter is 9-for-9 in field goals this season (and in his career). Jeter is one of 12 placekickers in the FBS who has yet to miss a field goal attempt

Shane Beamer

Shane Beamer is the third Gamecock head coach to take his team to a bowl game in each of his first two seasons, joining Steve Spurrier (2005-06) and Will Muschamp (2016-17).

Beamer has done a fine job considering the Gamecocks have used 38 different starters on offense (18) and defense (20) this season, ranking 11th in the FBS in number of players making starts in 2022. 

The Gamecocks are 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 road games.  

UF’s Richardson Putting Up Numbers 

I didn’t think Florida would win at Texas A&M on Saturday, but the Gators did: 41-24 to snap a two-game losing streak. Unfortunately, when we previewed that game, we had no idea the Aggies were going to be without six players due to the flu and down another 11 due to injury. 

Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson threw for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushed for 78 yards and two scores, including a 60-yard TD.

UF outscored A&M 21-0 in the second half. Florida finished with 492 yards of total offense, including 291 on the ground. The Gators’ 5.9 yards per carry ranks third in the FBS and is on track to tie the school record set in 2008.  

They have three of the top eight rushers in the SEC in yards per carry:

  • Richardson (second - 6.6)
  • RB Montrell Johnson Jr. (fifth - 6.0)
  • RB Trevor Etienne (eighth - 5.8)

South Carolina is allowing 4.3 yards per carry (ninth in SEC, 90th in FBS) and 171.8 rushing yards per game (11th in SEC, 99th in FBS). 

Anthony Richardson's Stats

Richardson is one of seven FBS players with 1,800 passing yards and 450 rushing yards this season. He is one of seven FBS players with eight-plus passing TDs and eight-plus rushing TDs.

A total of 12 Power 5 players have rushed for better than 6.0 yards per carry while scoring at least eight rushing touchdowns this season.

Johnson Jr. and Richardson are two of those players, with Richardson being one of two QBs.  Richardson’s eight rushing TDs are tied for second among SEC QBs and tied for sixth in the FBS. 

UF vs. Aggies

UF entered Saturday’s game ranked 130th in the country (out of 131 FBS teams) in third-down conversion defense, surrendering 52%. The Aggies converted their first three third-down chances, but went 1-for-10 the rest of the way. Florida had lost five straight SEC road games. 

With just 1 sack allowed at Texas A&M, Florida posted its eighth game with 1 sack or fewer surrendered in 9 games. UF has allowed only 9 sacks in 2022, which is tied for 18th-fewest in the FBS (tied for third in the SEC). UF is 1-7 ATS in its past eight following a win.  

Score Prediction: Florida 31 - South Carolina 24 

NCAAF Pick: South Carolina +7.5 (-116) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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South Carolina +7.5 (-116)
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NCAAF Pick: Under -59 (-110) at BetOnline 

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Under -59 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.