Let’s use what we’ve learned in the first week of the season and apply it to Saturday’s slate of games.
Below we have opinions on three games and we will reveal them in our NCAAF picks!
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, September 10, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Ohio Stadium
Ohio State Buckeyes Analysis
According to the consensus NCAAF odds, the Buckeyes closed as 17-point favorites over the fifth-ranked team in the nation, Notre Dame, last week. The visiting Fighting Irish made a game of it, at least in the first half, when they held a 10-7 lead and had the chalk-eaters biting their fingernails throughout.
Ultimately, the Buckeyes wore down the Irish and came away with a 21-10 victory but it was not enough to cover the number. Those who bet the double-digit road dogs were rewarded and the public got massacred again.
This line started at Ohio State -15 but at kickoff, it topped out at -17, a critical number, because the public can’t get enough of laying bad numbers on household favorites.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Analysis
So here we are again, only this time the opponent is hardly a national power. In fact, Arkansas State hails from the lightly regarded, barely FBS, Sun Belt Conference.
But the Red Wolves must have felt last week like the Buckeyes do this week, swaggy huge favorites.
That’s right, the Wolves were installed as 26-point home favorites over FCS school, Grambling, and they did not take their foot off the pedal in a 58-3 win.
Arkansas vs. Ohio: Best Bet
This opening line started at Ohio State -44 ½ but the early action has been on the underdog and the line as of this Labor Day writing is as low as -43 in some shops.
In what is not an indictment of the Buckeyes but rather a mild endorsement of the Red Wolves, I am going to grab the best line available on the road pup and back Arkansas State +44 to hang with Ohio State after a huge win in what could be a letdown situation.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 55 - Arkansas State 13
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, September 10, 2022 - 2:30 PM EDT at Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Analysis
The Irish lost their opener against No. 2 Ohio State but they hung tough in a 21-10 loss.
The public was squarely on the Buckeyes but the Irish got their backers the cover as a 17-point road dog. Tyler Buchner was 10-of-18 for 177 passing yards with no touchdowns or picks and ran for 18 yards on 11 carries.
The Notre Dame ground game totaled just 76 combined yards with Audric Estime punching it in on the one-yard line for the Irish’s only touchdown of the game.
Marshall Thundering Herd Analysis
Marshall had a far superior result but met a far inferior opponent when the Thundering Herd, installed as 40-point home chalk, ran roughshod all over FCS entry, Norfolk State, in a 55-3 annihilation.
It went pretty much as scripted for the Marshall coaches with the Herd piling up 380 yards on the ground as Ethan Payne and Khalan Laborn both broke the century mark and had two rushing TDs apiece.
Marshall quarterback, Henry Colombi, was nothing short of surgical in connecting on 24-of-26 for 205 yards and a touchdown.
Marshall vs. Notre Dame: Best Bet
The Marshall game told us very little about them other than they can lay waste to an inferior opponent and not lose interest. It’s a bully-in-the-playground mentality and it’s not a bad thing unless the bully wets his pants at the first sight of a real opponent.
I’m not sure the Irish are equipped to run away from a marginal opponent. I think they can defeat a superior opponent on grit alone, as it seems like their defense is further along than their offense. Let’s back Marshall plus the big number here.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 27 - Marshall 10
Furman Paladins vs. Clemson Tigers
Saturday, September 10, 2022 - 3:30 PM EDT at Clemson Memorial Stadium
Furman Paladins Analysis
Furman is an FCS entry coming off of a 52-0 thrashing over a Division 2 weakling named the North Greenville Crusaders.
This only shows that the Paladins are capable of flexing over an overmatched opponent. We have seen plenty of that in the opening week where one team is used as cannon fodder for the sole intention of bolstering their opponents’ street cred.
In case you’re wondering, Furman’s Tyler Huff was 10-of-12 for 189 yards and a pair of touchdown passes while eight different rushers garnered a combined 323 yards on the ground, none of whom reached the 100-yard mark.
Clemson Tigers Analysis
Clemson will be working on a short week after their 44-10 victory over Georgia Tech.
Although the Tigers checked in as the No. 4 team in the nation and were installed as 24-point neutral site favorites, the game was far from decided midway through the third quarter when the Yellow Jackets drew to within four points after a touchdown drive that chewed up well over four minutes and 57 yards.
Clemson took over from there and scored 27 unanswered points.
Furman vs. Clemson: Best Bet
I’m not sure I liked what I saw out of Clemson on Monday night. They blocked two punts that led to two touchdowns and DJ Uiagalelei looked like he handled the pressure better than last year but completed only 59 percent of his passes against a lower echelon pass defense.
That won’t matter very much against Furman because whatever he accomplished against Georgia Tech, one passing and one rushing touchdown, should be at least that much when facing the Paladins.
However, the number is so high that I’m not sure the Tigers, at this juncture, can cover the number. Take the dog and cash a ticket.
Predicted Score: Clemson 51 - Furman 10
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.