The sports betting sites have released their NCAAF odds for Saturday’s Week 10 action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in; Penn State vs. Maryland and Clemson vs. Louisville.
For reasons that I will explain, you should back the home dog on the spread for each contest. Feel free to parlay both bets at the top sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, November 6, 2021 – 03:30 PM EDT at Maryland Stadium
After losing straight-up to Ohio State last weekend, Penn State is in a must-fade spot. Historically, under coach Franklin, Penn State consistently does a poor job of regrouping after a straight-up loss.
Since this tendency forms the entire basis for my play, let’s go through the list beginning in 2017. In 2017, Penn State lost straight-up to Ohio State and then lost straight-up as 10-point favorites to Michigan State. Next year, the Nittany Lions lost straight-up to the Buckeyes and then lost straight-up as 13.5-point favorites to Michigan State.
Subsequently, they failed to cover the spread at Indiana. Exceptionally, they did cover the spread against Wisconsin after suffering a massive blowout in Michigan. In 2019, they failed to cover the spread against Indiana after losing straight-up to Minnesota. Later, they did not come close to covering the spread against Rutgers after their straight-up loss at Ohio State.
Last year, this pattern repeated itself four times until they finally covered the spread against Michigan. This year, the Nittany Lions failed to cover the spread against Illinois after losing to Iowa, although they did cover the spread against the Buckeyes last weekend despite losing to the Illini the week before. So, in the past four years, Penn State is 3-10 ATS following a straight-up loss.
One may raise doubts because Penn State has covered after losing straight-up. It is rare but not impossible. However, rest assured for your sports betting that Penn State is especially unlikely to bounce back this weekend because it finds itself in a classic sandwich spot -- just like it did in its major upset loss to the Illini.
After playing a huge game at Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have to somehow concentrate sufficiently on Maryland. Their ability to concentrate will surely be impeded, though, by their awareness that their next opponent is high-profile Michigan. They will surely be looking past the lowly Terps.
Clemson Tigers vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, November 6, 2021 - 07:30 PM EDT at Cardinal Stadium
Clemson on the Road
This season, Clemson is winless, 0-3 ATS on the road. The Tigers were not close to covering the spread in any of the three road games. First, they lost straight-up as 10.5-point favorites at NC State. Then, they escaped with a 17-14 win at struggling Syracuse.
Most recently, they lost by 10 points as 3.5-point underdogs at Pitt. One thing that does not quite show up for Clemson on the road is its defense. Devin Leary, for example, threw a season-high four touchdowns in NC State’s upset victory over the Tigers.
Most recently, Kenny Pickett threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns against the Tigers. This negative tendency of Clemson’s pass defense presents great news for Louisville’s Malik Cunningham, who forms a uniquely crucial part of the Cardinal offense given both his abilities as a passer and the threat he poses as a runner.
Clemson’s defensive weakness is decisive because its offense is broken this season. The Tigers repeatedly have trouble reaching just 20 points. Understand for your best bets that the Tigers miss weapons at key positions and their offensive line has been struggling from the beginning of the season.
Injuries have further depleted this unit. They have also eroded stability, particularly in the interior. Recently and significantly, for example, All-ACC senior left guard Matt Bockhorst suffered a season-ending knee injury against Pitt.
Penn State and Clemson are both worth fading given the spot each is in. Penn State just lost and is in a sandwich spot; Clemson is on the road. For the above reasons, I recommend parlaying both Maryland and Louisville for your NCAAF Picks.
Feel free to use our trusty parlay betting calculator for your parlay betting needs.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.